Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Electric, hybrid truck population expected to exceed 1.6M in next decade, says Navigant


Thursday, November 30, 2017
by THE TRUCKER NEWS SERVICES

Tesla’s Electric Semi introduced this month is one of the reasons the electric and hybrid truck market is expected to enjoy tremendous growth during the next decade. (Courtesy: TESLA)
Tesla’s Electric Semi introduced this month is one of the reasons the electric and hybrid truck market is expected to enjoy tremendous growth during the next decade. (Courtesy: TESLA)

BOULDER, Colo. — The electric and hybrid truck population is expected to exceed 1.6 million in next decade, says a report issued by Navigant Research, a market research and consulting company that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets.

The electric truck sector is likely to benefit from progress in the electric bus sector, which may drive down the cost of key components

The report examines the global market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks across hybrid, electric, and fuel cell powertrains, providing forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population through 2027.

With the potential to provide lower operational costs, noise reduction, and environmental benefits, electric trucks are attractive to fleets, yet high upfront costs are still prohibitive, according to Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst at Navigant Research.

Nonetheless, manufacturers continue to work toward commercially viable electric trucks, thanks to mounting pressure from governments to reduce pollutants from diesel fuel combustion and tackle greenhouse gas emissions, she said.

The overall medium- and heavy-duty truck market is projected to continue its reliance on conventional diesel powertrains for the next decade, but hybrid and electric powertrain populations will increase, with volumes expected to grow from about 125,500 to 1.66 million from 2017 to 2027, Jerram said.

“We could see a breakthrough in adoption of electrified trucks once total cost of ownership benefits can be clearly demonstrated for fleet operators,” Jerram said. “For the next few years, trials and small-scale deployments by major fleets and manufacturers will help clarify potential cost benefits and could set in motion a significant increase in orders for electrified trucks.”

While the electric truck market has lagged behind that of the electric bus, the sector is likely to benefit from its progress as the cost of key components comes down thanks to increasing volumes, Jerram said. Until this occurs, electric trucks deployments are expected to be focused in places where there are incentives or other government programs in place.

The report, “Market Data: Electric Drive Trucks,” analyzes the global market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks with the following powertrains: gasoline hybrid; gasoline plug-in hybrid; diesel hybrid; diesel plug-in hybrid; battery electric; and hydrogen fuel cells.

The report provides an analysis of key market and technology issues, market drivers, and profiles of more than 35 vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers.

 

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