COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research has published its latest edition of North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK. In the publication, ACT Research reported that, apart from Class 8, the predictions for trailers and Classes 4-7 vehicles remained unchanged.
“Not only did April build not slow in the face of tough freight fundamentals, falling backlogs, and near-record inventories, production of Class 8 vehicles came in well ahead of expectations. Still strong production and an upwards adjustment to our inventory-carrying assumptions boosts 2024 output while reducing 2025,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
“The uptick in 2024 expectations into worsening conditions is a coin toss: we may miss the timing, but shallower sooner or deeper later appear to the options,” he added. “Class 8 overcapacity persisting longer in 2024 and weighing more heavily on carrier profitability is not just a risk to Class 8, but also to the trailer forecast. If current market demand reflects EPA’27 prebuying, that prebuying comes at the expense of better freight rates sooner. While over-the-road carriers are under considerable pressure, we would be remiss not to note that vocational truck markets are in better shape than tractor markets, though even here, inventories are getting extended.”
Several areas of strength persist in the Class 8 market, yet:
- For-hire carrier profits have plummeted to their lowest since 2010.
- Amidst the cycle’s nadir, capacity has only increased without any rationalization.
- This expansion of capacity has driven freight rates to recessionary levels, exacerbating the downturn.
- Moreover, the economy’s recovery rate is progressing at roughly half the GDP growth rate of over 4% seen in the second half of 2023.
Born and raised in Little Rock, AR, Erica N. Guy decided to stay in her hometown to begin her professional career in journalism. Since obtaining her bachelor’s degree from UAPB, Erica has professionally written for several publications about several topics ranging from lifestyle, tech, culture, and entertainment, just to name a few. Continuing her love for her hometown, she joined our team in June 2023, where she is currently a staff writer. Her career goals include continuing storytelling through her writing by being the best professional writer she can be. In her spare time, Erica enjoys trying new foods, cozying up with a good book, spending time with family and friends, and establishing herself as a future businesswoman.
