COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index suggests the supply-demand balance between the fleet and freight is narrowing.
The Volume Index decreased 5.5 points in June to 48.9, seasonally adjusted (SA), from a Roadcheck-assisted 54.4 in May.
“Volumes have been fairly flat this year, but they’ve improved to ‘less bad’ on a y/y basis, with the index averaging 48.8 through the first half of this year, versus 42.8 last year,” said Carter Vieth, the research analyst at ACT Research. “Even with consumers under strain, real US retail sales are up 1.8% YTD, and further disinflation helps support our outlook on real income growth. Additionally, intermodal and import volumes are trending positive, which minimally adds to overall surface freight volumes. Private fleet insourcing has likely taken away some for-hire demand, but the recent softening in US Class 8 tractor sales indicates a slowing in private fleet growth.”
Overall, truckload volume data remain mixed, with the Cass Freight Index and DAT spot loads still at cycle lows.
The Capacity Index increased by 3.6 points m/m to 49.3 in June, from 45.6 in May.
“Though the index increased m/m, this month’s reading marks the 12th month in a row capacity has been below 50, the longest streak of decline since the inception of the survey in late 2009,” Vieth added. “Fleet capacity contractions occurring at a slower rate suggest the supply-demand balance between the fleet and freight is narrowing. Given the duration of this downturn and the still-weak fundamentals, it’s hard to see capacity turning positive in the coming months, especially as the US tractor sales trend continues to sag.”
The Supply-Demand Balance fell in June to 49.6 (SA) from 58.7 in May, as freight volumes decreased and fleet capacity increased.
“Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, is resulting in a longer leadup to higher market rates than in past cycles. With capacity an issue, overall equipment purchasing trends will remain key to watch. Continuing demand-side freight growth should provide ongoing support to the market balance,” Vieth concluded.
Born and raised in Little Rock, AR, Erica N. Guy decided to stay in her hometown to begin her professional career in journalism. Since obtaining her bachelor’s degree from UAPB, Erica has professionally written for several publications about several topics ranging from lifestyle, tech, culture, and entertainment, just to name a few. Continuing her love for her hometown, she joined our team in June 2023, where she is currently a staff writer. Her career goals include continuing storytelling through her writing by being the best professional writer she can be. In her spare time, Erica enjoys trying new foods, cozying up with a good book, spending time with family and friends, and establishing herself as a future businesswoman.
