Two reporting agencies are a bit conflicted when posting preliminary stats for North American Class 8 net orders for July. Reports from both ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence were released Friday, Aug. 2.
While the numbers are a bit different, the consensus remains that numbers down.
According to the ACT report, July preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 13,400 units, down 8% month to month and 13% year to year.
“Class 8 orders remained at directionally and seasonally expected levels in July,” shared Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Historically, July is the worst month of the year for Class 8 orders, so is awarded the biggest seasonal factor, nearly 24% this year. Applying that seasonal factor boosts July’s seasonally adjusted intake to 17,500 units, which results in a narrower 3.7% month-over-month decline.”
Vieth added that the headwinds that have been buffeting the US portion of the NA commercial vehicle industry did not diminish through the first half of 2024, and were arguably a touch worse at the start of the year’s second half.
“Preliminary results of public TL carriers’ [second quarter] performance are only encouraging in the sense that the nominal results were up from [first quarter],” he said. “To this we add surging and record-level inventories, in both the medium and heavy-duty markets. … we have been repeatedly surprised to the upside on order activity. As was the case in June, July’s orders were more closely aligned with data-driven expectations.”
ACT’s final report for July will be released in mid-August.
While FTR agreed with much of Veith’s analysis of the market, the numbers were a bit askew from what ACT reported.
FTR reported that Class 8 preliminary net orders in July totaled 12,400 units, down 6% month over month and 7% year over year. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have now totaled 272,900 units.
July’s orders are somewhat below seasonal expectations with the market on a year-to-date (YTD) basis now performing slightly below replacement demand levels with an average of 19,400 net orders per month, according to FTR’s released statement.
The decline is unsurprising given the strong order performance in the first five months of the year and the typically weak seasonal order period. After averaging nearly 16,000 units from April to June, orders have slowed to just under 15,000 units in the most recent three months, FTR’s report stated. Build slot fulfillment for Class 8 trucks continues to decline as a result. Orders are now lower on a y/y basis for the second consecutive month, but due to the strong performance earlier in the year, net orders for 2024 year to date remain up 18% year over year.
“OEMs experienced a somewhat mixed market this month with vocational markets mildly underperforming conventional, but the overall picture was steady,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slowing pace. Year-to-date order levels are just marginally below historical averages and seasonal expectations, and the market fundamentals remain relatively consistent based on these preliminary orders. We expect to see further reductions in backlogs once the final Class 8 market indicators are released later this month as well as continued growth in an already-record level of inventory. The pressure on OEMs to reduce build rates continues to grow.”
FTR will also release finalnumbers in mid-August.
Bruce Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has lived in three states including Arkansas, Missouri and Georgia. During his nearly 20-year career, Bruce has served as managing editor and sports editor for numerous publications. He and his wife, Dana, who is also a journalist, are based in Carrollton, Georgia.
