At the time of this writing, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election remains a mystery, as does the question of which party will have control of Congress.
Even after Election Day, when all the votes have been tallied and — barring a repeat of the events surrounding the 2020 election — a new president is set to take office, no one can truly predict what the landscape in Washington will be like for the next four years.
Missy Edwards, a lobbyist for the trucking industry on Capitol Hill, shared her thoughts.
She describes the 2024 election season as “historically tumultuous,” pointing to widespread media coverage of assassination attempts on Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump. Another first was the withdrawal of incumbent President Joe Biden from the Democratic ticket; he was quickly replaced with current Vice President Kamala Harris.
“While polls consistently predicted a very close election, the race is now tighter than ever,” she said.
After months of polls trending in Trump’s favor, Harris’ last-minute entry completely reshaped the race and altered the electoral map.
Edwards cited the Cook Political Report which now rates seven battleground states as toss-ups — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina.
Edwards says both campaigns will dedicate nearly all their time and resources in the campaign’s final sprint building support in those seven states. See graphic below for a few key state races to watch.
In a final significant move before ballots are cast, the Federal Reserve took an unprecedented step to cut interest rates just 47 days before Election Day, a move Edwards says is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy before voters head to the polls. However, she says, it could improve perceptions of the Biden-Harris administration’s economic stewardship.
State races may be a bit more convoluted, however.
Edwards says the 2024 Senate map continues to heavily favor Republicans. The biggest news is that Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s polling lead remains within the margin of error against Republican Bernie Moreno. In Montana, and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is continuing to lose ground to Republican Tim Sheehy.
Edwards provided the following breakdown of a few key races and issues in a handful of states.
“After the election we expect the conversations around the Highway Fund Reauthorization to pick up,” Edwards noted. “Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) is expected to replace Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) as the top Democrat on the Senate EPW (environment and public works) Committee — a key committee of jurisdiction for the trucking industry.”
Meanwhile, in the House, Democrats need to pick up four net seats to take majority. A September 8 Average Generic Congressional Poll by 538 showed Democrats at 47.2 and Republicans at 44.6.
Republicans hold 16 seats in districts carried by President Biden, and Cook Political Report rates 24 seats as Toss Ups — 13 Republicans 11 Democrats. Of these seats, five are in California and three are in New York.
Since Harris replaced Biden in the presidential race, a fundraising surge has created a resource advantage for Democrats. The Harris campaign announced a $10 million transfer to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).
The Republican party was successful in its 2024 redistricting efforts, gaining a net single seat before the general election in California, North Carolina and Ohio.
Republicans in the North Carolina legislature crafted a map that wiped out three battleground Democrats by turning their seats into “safe red districts. In addition, voting-rights groups won legal challenges to racial gerrymandering in Alabama and Louisiana that each created a new seat likely to flip to Democrats.
As the candidates continue to campaign ahead of Election Day, the trucking industry can only wait to see what happens — and then work with whatever administration takes power.
Bruce Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has lived in three states including Arkansas, Missouri and Georgia. During his nearly 20-year career, Bruce has served as managing editor and sports editor for numerous publications. He and his wife, Dana, who is also a journalist, are based in Carrollton, Georgia.
