Many in the trucking industry was looking forward to better days ahead as 2024 came to an end. Unfortunately, the news from December didn’t look good.
The Cass Freight Index for Shipments fell 7.3% in the month, according to the monthly report from Cass Information Systems.
Of course, shipment numbers almost always decline in December because most of the Christmas retail rush is delivered in the previous months. In addition, the new year of manufacturing and construction doesn’t kick off until January.
But even accounting for seasonal fluctuations, Cass’s Shipments Index was still down 3.1%.
When compared to December 2023, shipments declined 6.5%. That’s the largest year-over-year decline since January 2024. The total decline in shipments for 2024 was 4.1%, after falling 5.3% in 2023.
Profits are still possible even when shipments are down.
Even when shipments are down, however, carriers can profit while hauling less freight — if rates are higher.
With a month-to-month comparison, expenditures for shipping dropped 2.6% in December, but when seasonally adjusted, that “drop” actually turned out to be a 0.5% increase. Also, inferred freight rates — the index that Cass calculates from shipment numbers and total expenditures — turned out to be 3.3% higher than the same month in 2023 and 5.1% better than November 2024.
That’s positive news for trucking.
Still, over all of 2024, shipping expenditures fell 11%.
Perhaps the best news in the Cass Indexes came with the Truckload Linehaul index, which doesn’t include non-trucking forms of shipping.
“The year-over-year decline narrowed to 04% in December from 1.1% in November,” wrote Tim Denoyer, vice president of Trucking at ACT Research and author of the Cass report. This index is now on the verge of turning positive year-over-year for the first time in two years, possibly in January.”
The Cass Freight Truckload Linehaul Index is based on invoice information from Cass clients and represents both spot and contract dry van rates.
ATA predicts volume growth.
In its latest edition of its annual freight forecast, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) predicted that truck volumes should grow 1.6% in 2025. The projection comes from a joint report by ATA and S&P Global Market Intelligence. The report projects freight growth through 2035.
ATA’s advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, released Jan. 21, shows that trucking activity in the United States contracted in December — 111.3 compared to 112.6 in November.
“Tonnage fell 1.8% in November, bringing the two-month total decrease to 2.9%, pushing tonnage to its lowest level since January 2024,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist.
“Sluggishness in factory output continues to weigh on freight volumes, but another drag on the index has been fleet growth at private carriers, which is holding back how much freight is flowing to for-hire carriers.”
DAT: Spot load postings were up in December.
In its Trendline report, DAT Freight and Analytics showed a 17.3% increase in spot load postings for December over November numbers and a 23.3% increase over December 2023 postings.
One statistic reported by DAT is the number of available loads compared to the number of available trucks. That ratio rose 59.4% in December for dry van, 40.9% for flatbed and 50.4% for refrigerated.
It’s not unusual for the number of posted trucks to decline during the holiday season, but with fewer trucks and more loads, rates should be on the rise.
They were.
Dry van spot rates rose to a national average of $2.11 per mile in December, up from $2.03 in November. Refrigerated rates grew to $2.48 from $2.45, while flatbed spot rates rose to $2.39 from $2.37.
As of mid-January, all three segments are still rising. Winter storms have undoubtedly played a part in that trend: When trucks park to avoid severe weather or are delayed in their routes, fewer trucks are available to haul offered loads, pushing spot rates higher.
It may take an additional month to see if expected rate increases are really happening.
Will Trump help or harm the industry with threatened tariffs?
In the meantime, this month’s events in Washington could impact the trucking industry for years, with the swearing-in of Donald Trump as the 47th U.S. president on Jan. 20.
Trump has threatened to impose stiff tariffs on U.S. trading partners Canada, China and Mexico.
While some economists have expressed concern about the impact of tariffs on the economy, Trump’s tactic of threatening tariffs to goad governments of other countries into specific actions is well known.
Both Canada and Mexico sent leaders to meet with Trump, prior to his inauguration, at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. Both countries have increased border security measures in response to Trump’s demands.
One tariff threat from Trump involved John Deere moving some of its production to Mexico. Trump threatened a 100% tariff on the company’s products in retaliation for the loss of U.S. jobs in the move. Following his Jan. 20 inauguration, Trump vowed to enact 25% tariffs on products from U.S. neighbors Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1.
In addition, tariff threats against China remain a strong possibility. Tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term on $360 billion in Chinese goods were retained by the Biden administration. A 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles is still on the books.
What do tariffs mean for consumer pricing?
Economists worry that new tariffs on foreign products will drive up prices passed along to the American consumer. Others point out that tariffs make conditions more favorable for U.S. businesses, benefitting the economy.
If imposed, tariffs would result in a reduction in some imports, possibly causing a reduction in freight volumes.
As production is shifted to the U.S. or to other countries not subject to tariffs, volumes should stabilize. For example, in response to Trump tariffs on China, production of some goods was moved to Vietnam.
The U.S. Department of Transportation awaits new leadership.
The trucking industry is also watching for the changing of the guard at the USDOT.
Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Transportation is former Congressman Sean Duffy. On Jan. 15, Duffee breezed through a confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. He was introduced by Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, and flanked by Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, in a strong indication of bipartisan support.
Duffy served nine years as a congressional representative for Wisconsin, resigning during his last term to care for his family of nine children, including the youngest, who suffers from a heart condition.
Duffy has been a frequent Fox News contributor and co-hosted “The Bottom Line” on the Fox Business Channel.
“No federal agency impacts Americans’ daily lives and loved ones like the Department of Transportation,” he said in his Senate confirmation hearing.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
