WASHINGTON — The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.1% in December from November.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the TSI dropped for the second consecutive month. From December 2023 to December 2024 the index fell 1.0%.
The level of for-hire freight shipments in December measured by the Freight TSI (137.3) was 2.9% below the all-time high of 141.4 reached in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.
Analysis
The Freight TSI decreased in December due to seasonally adjusted decreases in water and trucking, while air freight, rail carload, rail intermodal and pipeline grew.
The December decrease came in the context of positive results in other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was up 0.9% in December, reflecting increases of 0.6% in manufacturing, 2.1% in utilities and 1.8% in mining. Housing starts were up 15.8% and Personal Income increased by 0.4%.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 0.9 to 49.3 but still indicating a contraction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
Although the December Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel, the November index is now being released. The index grew by 0.8% from October to November. Seasonally adjusted air passenger and rail passenger grew, while transit declined.
The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for forty-two months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 57th consecutive month.
Trend
The December freight index decrease was the third decrease in four months leaving the index 2.1% below its level in August 2024. The index increased 3.5% since August 2021. The December Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 10.4%; the index increased month-over-month in 32 of the 56 months since that low.
Index Highs and Lows
For-hire freight shipments in December 2024 (137.3) were 44.4% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The December 2024 level was 2.9% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2019 (141.4).
Year to Date
For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 1.0% in December compared to the end of 2023.
Long-term Trend
For-hire freight shipments are up 1.0% in the five years from December 2019 and are up 11.4% in the 10 years from December 2014.
Same Month of Previous Year
December 2024 for-hire freight shipments were down 1.0% from December 2023.
Q4 Changes
The freight TSI fell 1.2% in the 1st quarter, rose 1.0% in the 2nd quarter, remained unchanged in the 3rd quarter (with the September 2024 index equaling the June 2024 index), and fell 0.9% in the 4th quarter.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
