COLUMBUS, Ind. — After the strong end to 2024, with Class 8 orders booked at a 357k SAAR in Q4, the past two months have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty.
According to the latest release of ACT’s North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the uncertainties “have thrown a wrench into business planning.”
“Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, a response to the newfound uncertainty, or both remains an open question,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units in February. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units, and a 200k unit SAAR—the lowest SA Class 8 order volume in nearly two years.”
Tractor Mark Down
According to Vieth, with the tractor market already at a low ebb, tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early-in-the-year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key US Class 8 market indicators including freight volumes and by extension, freight rates, consumer spending and sentiment.
“In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the US, the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted,” Vieth said. “Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
