COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand grew balance grew at a slower rate in February, as freight volumes fell and capacity contracted.
“Trade policy uncertainty poses a risk to a weakening US economy, and early data for 2025 show some signs of slowing growth,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Retail sales were weaker than expected in January and goods inflation rose 3.1% y/y in January on tariff expectations. As a result of increased uncertainty, consumer confidence in March fell to its lowest levels in nearly three years.”
Volume Index
The Volume Index fell 6.1 points in February to 48.1, seasonally adjusted (SA), from 54.2 in January.
Capacity Index
The Capacity Index increased 2.0 points m/m to 47.1 in February, from 45.1 in January
“Going on three years of weak profitability, this month is a continuation of what we’ve been seeing: for-hire carriers are continuing to shrink,” Vieth said. “Given the current volume and rate environment, we would anticipate for-hire capacity addition decisions to remain at or below replacement levels, leaving the index at or around a flat 50 level.”
Supply-Demand Balance
The Supply-Demand Balance grew at a slower rate in February. At 51.1 (SA), from 59.1 in January, as freight volumes decreased, and capacity contracted at a slower rate.
“Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, has resulted in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles,” Vieth said. “Goods inflation and a weakening consumer outlook due to tariffs may limit freight volume growth in the coming months. This situation could lead to weaker manufacturing/industrial output if enacted.”
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