COLUMBUS, Ind. — While the outlook is fraught with uncertainty and recession risks are rising, ACT Research is highlighting a silver lining for the for-hire freight market.
“Even the EPA low-NOx standards initially promulgated by the first Trump administration planned to go into effect in 2027 are now under review,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT’s vice president and senior analyst. “The significant private fleet prebuying in preparation for these rules in recent years is set to end or even reverse as tariffs hit, which is likely to reduce equipment supply. While the freight demand outlook is lower, trade and regulatory turmoil are also supply shocks, which we expect to lead to freight rate inflation later this year.”
Uncertainty Still High
Elevated uncertainty is starting to turn the tide of private fleet capacity additions after a long for-hire downturn, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Shippers added to safety stocks in anticipation of tariffs, and deteriorating consumer fundamentals due to elevated uncertainty suggest the for-hire freight recession will persist near term,” Denoyer said.
Pre-Tariff Prep
According to Denoyer, consumers made extra pre-tariff purchases as well, and are likely to pull back on spending as they anticipate higher inflation.
“The long for-hire freight recession already led US Class 8 tractor sales below replacement levels in the first few months of 2025, so capacity is finally tightening after significant expansion in recent years,” Denoyer said. “This isn’t helping the for-hire market yet, but freight demand should still increase seasonally in the coming months, and tighter capacity should mitigate the negative effects on freight demand from the trade war.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
