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COLUMBUS, Ind. — According to ACT Research’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle Ooutlook, yellow lights are flashing for the U.S. economy, and by extension for the North American commercial vehicle industry. “Over the course of the fourth quarter 2018, the list of indicators flashing yellow became longer and brighter for the U.S. economy,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “While there is insufficient evidence to make a recession call, there is enough presently to suggest growing potential for sectoral recessions, à la 2015.” Vieth noted that after several months of deterioration, the spread between contract and spot rates has been sufficiently wide for a sufficiently long period that ACT’s rate pressure analysis is now calling for negative contract rates, if just, by the second quarter 2019. “Despite some caution creeping into the outlook, the heavy commercial vehicle market continues to benefit from a still-broad spectrum of supply and demand-side triggers,” Vieth said. Regarding ACT’s medium duty forecasts, Vieth said preliminary December orders were modestly below the current trend, with orders averaging 25,000 units per month in 2018, which continued to exert moderate upward pressure on forecasts.” ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net. For more information about ACT’s NA Commercial Vehicle Outlook, go to http://www.actresearch.net/services/publications/the-act-n-a-commercial-vehicle-outlook/.

Preliminary data for the orders of Class 8 trucks in North America in December revealed a substantial decline from November, but the numbers for the year were quite strong, say two firms — ACT Research and FTR — that record and analyze order and sales information for new trucks, used trucks and trailers. ACT Research said preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 21,300 units in December, down 24 percent sequentially from November and 43 percent from year-ago December. “For all of 2018, Class 8 orders totaled 490,100 units, far outstripping the previous annual order tally set in 2004 at 390,000 units, with orders averaging 40,800 units/month last year,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Owing to its status as the strongest order month of the year, seasonal adjustment is always unkind to Class 8 orders in December, dropping the month’s volume to a 25-month low of 17,300 units. It is important to put slowing orders into context. With a 300,000-plus unit backlog and a solidly booked build schedule, the drop in orders is in-line with expectations.” FTR reported preliminary North American Class 8 orders for December fell to 21,000 units, the lowest total since August 2017. December order activity was as expected, with fleets ordering to secure a dwindling number of available build slots in the second half of 2019, FTR said, adding there are few build slots remaining for 2019, so the industry should expect orders totals to remain low the next several months. Backlogs will continue to fall but will remain lofty at the beginning of 2019.  Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have now totaled 482,000 units. “Order rates right now are not that relevant because of the record-breaking totals recorded in June and July last year,” said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles.\ Fleets got a jump on ordering to reserve 2019 build slots, so orders had to fall off at some point, and December was the start of it, he said. “Because orders rates are reduced, they are not currently a good barometer of long-term demand. All the orders are in, the question now is how many of these orders will actually be built? We will have to watch the build rates and retail sales closely for clues about the future strength of the Class 8 market,” Ake said. “FTR is forecasting freight growth to ease back some from the 2018 peak, but remain vibrant for the first half of 2019. At some point, the economy and freight growth will moderate and truck builds will decline. Then order cancellation rates will rise.”

WASHINGTON  — U.S. employers dramatically stepped up their hiring in December, adding 312,000 jobs in an encouraging display of strength for an economy in the midst of a trade war, slowing global growth and a partial shutdown of the federal government. The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9 percent, but that reflected a surge in jobseekers— a positive for growth. Average hourly pay improved 3.2 percent from a year ago, up from average wage growth of 2.7 percent at the end of 2017. The for-hire trucking industry added 2,900 jobs in December, bringing the year’s total of new jobs to 36,600. The jolt in hiring offers a dose of reassurance after a tumultuous few months as the outlook from the financial markets has turned decidedly bleaker. Job growth at this pace is a sign that the economy will continue to expand for a 10th straight year, even if overall growth slows somewhat because of the waning stimulus from President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. Although employers are showing their confidence, the financial markets have become increasingly worried. Major companies such as Apple say their sales are being jeopardized by the tariff-fueled trade war between the United States and China. Factory activity in China and the United States have both weakened, with the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index on Thursday posting its steepest decline in a decade. The government is about to enter its third week of a partial shutdown, with negotiations stalled over President Donald Trump’s insistence that Democrats agree on funding for a wall along the border with Mexico. And attacks by Trump on the Federal Reserve over its rate increases have raised doubts about Chairman Jay Powell’s status — a concern for both the markets and the economy. The expected continuation of steady job growth suggests that such risks might be — for the moment, anyway — overblown. However, the stock market will have to weigh whether the strong job growth encourages the Fed to hike rates in 2019 more frequently than investors had previously anticipated. The health care, food services, construction and manufacturing sectors were the primary contributors to last month’s hiring. Health care and education services added 82,000 jobs in December, the biggest jump since February 2012. Restaurants and drinking placed posted a net gain of 40,700 jobs. Builders added 38,000 construction jobs, while manufacturers increased their payrolls by 32,000 workers. Businesses are still searching for more workers. The employment site Glassdoor found that job postings have risen 17 percent in the past year to 6.7 million. “We really don’t see any slowdown yet,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor. Despite the increase in the unemployment rate, the influx of people searching for work coupled with the job gains is an indication that the rate should decline in the coming months. Economists estimate that it requires roughly 100,000 job gains each month to satisfy population growth and keep the unemployment rate at its current level. Hiring has easily eclipsed that pace. In 2018, employers added 2.6 million jobs, or an average of nearly 217,000 a month, according to the Labor Department.

PORTLAND, Ore. — The number of spot truckload freight posts declined 21 percent during the week ending December 29, not an unusual figure when you compare a holiday-shortened workweek to a full one. But when loads did need to go, capacity was hard to find. Truck posts were down 47 percent compared to the previous week as carriers shut down for Christmas, according to DAT Solutions, which operates the DAT network of load boards. The imbalance produced big gains in national average load-to-truck ratios: Van ratio: 8.9, up 74 percent Reefer ratio: 10.5, up 49 percent Flatbed ratio: 26.1, up 34 percent Spot rates ticked up for all three equipment types. This is despite a 3-cent decline in the price of diesel to $3.05 a gallon. Spot rates include a calculated surcharge and can be affected by changes in the price of fuel, which has fallen in recent weeks. Van trends Seventy of the top 100 van lanes paid more last week and the national average spot van rate rose 1 cent to $2.08/mile. Among the markets with higher average outbound rates: Chicago: $2.55/mile, up 7 cents Columbus, Ohio: $2.54/mile, up 10 cents Philadelphia: $2.09/mile, up 8 cents Charlotte: $2.36/mile, up 9 cents Atlanta: $2.25/mile, up 7 cents While long-haul freight paid a premium last week, rates for regional hauls rose, too: Columbus-Buffalo: $3.67/mile, up 20 cents Allentown-Boston: $3.98/mile, up 9 cents Dallas-Houston: $2.64/mile, up 17 cents Atlanta-Charlotte: $2.74/mile, up 23 cents Flatbed trends The number of flatbed load posts dropped 44 percent and truck posts were down 58 percent last week. The national average spot flatbed rate increased 1 cent to $2.43/mile. One market to watch: Houston, where the average outbound flatbed rate increased 16 cents to $2.69/mile. Houston to New Orleans jumped 60 cents to an average of $3.08/mile. These are encouraging signs that freight is moving in the oilfields. Reefer trends The number of reefer load posts was only down 9 percent. By comparison, truck posts dropped off 40 percent. With capacity tight, 64 of the 72 top reefer lanes paid better compared to the previous week and the national average spot reefer rate rose 2 cents to $2.44/mile. DAT Trendlines are generated using DAT RateView, which provides real-time reports on spot market and contract rates, as well as historical rate and capacity trends. The RateView database is comprised of more than $57 billion in freight payments. DAT load boards average 1 million load posts per business day. For the latest spot market load availability and rate information, visit http://dat.com/trendlines and follow @LoadBoards on Twitter.  

LISLE, Ill. — Navistar International Corp. had a fourth quarter 2018 net income of $188 million, or $1.89 per diluted share, compared to fourth quarter 2017 net income of $135 million, or $1.36 per diluted share, company officials have revealed. Navistar reported net income of $340 million, or $3.41 per diluted share for fiscal year 2018, versus net income of $30 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, for fiscal year 2017. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ CAPTION FOR PHOTO Navistar reported it was the only OEM to grow its Class 8 market share during its fiscal year that ended September 30, 2018. Pictured is International LT Series Class 8 tractor. (Courtesy: NAVISTAR) _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Navistar said it was the only OEM to show growth in the Class 8 market during its fiscal year which ended September 30, 2018. Fourth quarter 2018 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased 20 percent to $322 million, versus $268 million one year ago. Fiscal year 2018 adjusted EBITDA increased 42 percent to $826 million, versus $582 million in 2017. Full-year adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 8.1 percent, up from 6.8 percent for 2017. This marks the company’s sixth consecutive year of annual growth in adjusted EBITDA on both a dollar and percentage basis. Revenues in the fourth quarter increased 28 percent, to $3.3 billion, compared to fourth quarter 2017. The revenue increase was largely driven by a 45 percent increase in the company’s core volumes, which represent its sales of Class 6-8 trucks and buses in the United States and Canada. Revenue for fiscal year 2018 was up 20 percent to $10.25 billion, compared to $8.6 billion in fiscal year 2017, attributable to annual revenue growth in all four operating segments. Class 8 retail market share grew to 13.5 percent in fiscal year 2018 versus 11.8 percent in fiscal year 2017. Navistar finished fourth quarter 2018 with $1.42 billion in consolidated cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, and with $1.36 billion in manufacturing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. For the year, the company generated $307 million of manufacturing free cash flow. “2018 was a very strong year for the industry, and a breakout year for Navistar,” said Troy Clarke, chairman, president and chief executive officer. “We were the only truck OEM to grow Class 8 share during the year. With the industry’s newest product line-up, superior quality and a strong focus on customer uptime, we expect to gain market share in 2019 for the third year in a row.” The company finished 2018 with strong momentum across the board, Clarke said. During the fourth quarter, the company launched the International CV Series line of Class 4/5 trucks, the only Class 4/5 truck that is designed, distributed and supported by a manufacturer specializing in commercial vehicles. Year-over-year growth in heavy retail market share, up 2.5 share points, was attributable to strong sales of the International LT Series on-highway truck and the 12.4-liter A26 engine. The company’s IC Bus school buses, led by alternative-fuel offerings, also improved retail share by 1.3 share points. Additionally, its medium-duty International MV Series and vocational International HV Series built improved order share resulting in a strong backlog. The company reported a backlog of 45,400 units in its Core markets, up from 15,600 at the end of 2017. Last month, Navistar announced a definitive agreement under which affiliates of Cerberus Capital Management, L.P. will acquire a majority interest in Navistar’s defense business, Navistar Defense. Following the close of the transaction, Cerberus will become a 70 percent owner and Navistar will remain a 30 percent owner. The agreement also includes an exclusive long-term supply agreement for commercial parts and chassis. The transaction, subject to regulatory approval, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019. In October, Navistar improved its debt profile by repaying its 4.5% senior subordinated convertible notes issued in October 2013. Repayment of the outstanding principal of $200 million at maturity was funded with cash on hand. The company provided the following 2019 industry and financial guidance, including the fully consolidated financial impact of Navistar Defense: Industry retail deliveries of Class 6-8 trucks and buses in the United States and Canada are forecast to be 395,000 to 425,000 units, with Class 8 retail deliveries of 265,000 to 295,000 units. Revenues are expected to be between $10.75 billion and $11.25 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $850 million and $900 million. Following the completion of the partial sale of Navistar Defense, the company will update its 2019 guidance. “While we expect 2019 to be another strong year for Navistar and the industry, it’s important to recognize that Navistar as an investment is much more than just a cycle play,” Clarke said. “As our ongoing improvements demonstrate, the company also has strong opportunities to benefit by recapturing market share, growing parts revenue, improving margins, generating free cash flow and further de-risking the balance sheet. For all these reasons, looking forward the company is well positioned to generate superior shareholder value.”    

For the 10th week in a row on-highway diesel took a price plunge, showing up Wednesday down 4.4 cents to just above $3 a gallon at $3.077. That was compared with $3.121 December 17. In all 10 sectors monitored by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel prices dived, with Midwest prices down the most (7.4 cents a gallon) at $2.944. For a brief period, diesel in all regions was at or above the $3-a-gallon mark, with only the Gulf Coast area showing prices below that occasionally. Now, two other regions have joined in: the Midwest clocked in at $2.944; the Lower Atlantic area had prices at $2.987 a gallon and the Gulf Coast was at $2.869 Wednesday. Slowing economic growth globally and a partial U.S. government shutdown heading into its sixth day whipsawed markets from Europe to Asia, The Associated Press reported. Benchmark U.S. crude dropped 86 cents to $45.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract posted its biggest one-day gain in more than two years and settled at $46.22 a barrel in New York on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, shed $1.11 to come in at $53.36 a barrel. More wild market swings appeared imminent today, with U.S. stocks heading sharply lower after the Dow’s big gains on Wednesday. For more details on diesel prices by region, click here.

COLUMBUS, Ind. — At the top line, North American Class 8 net orders totaled 28,082 units in November, compared to build at 27,973 units, according to ACT Research. “As we move into the year’s home stretch, freight-related data points continue to shift from strong growth to more moderate levels of activity,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT Research president and senior analyst. “November marked the first negative year-over-year order comparison in two years, falling 17 percent compared to last November. Over the past 12 months, Class 8 net orders totaled 506,300 units, the second strongest 12-month order period in history, trailing only the 12-month period ending October.” Regarding the medium duty markets, Vieth said, “November’s orders hewed to the warm side of 2018’s activity, with medium duty orders rising 23 percent year-over-year. Through year-to-date, 2018’s 280,800 orders are up an identical 23 percent year-over-year. Medium-duty trucks have been the primary driver of stronger activity in 2018, followed respectively by bus and RV orders.” ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net. For more information about ACT’s State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Report, visit http://www.actresearch.net/services/publications/north-america-classes-5-8-vehicles/.  

WASHINGTON — Orders to U.S. factories for long-lasting goods rose at a modest pace last month, but the gain was driven entirely by demand for military aircraft. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell. Durable goods orders impact the trucking industry because trucks transport most of the goods once they are produced. The Commerce Department said Friday that durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent in November, following a sharp fall of 4.3 percent the previous month when orders for commercial and military aircraft plunged. Orders in November, excluding transportation, dropped 0.3 percent. A category that reflects business spending plans declined 0.6 percent, the third drop in four months. The figures suggest that U.S. factory output, while mostly solid for now, may slow in the coming months. The Trump administration’s trade battles have caused many U.S. trading partners to impose tariffs on American goods. Exports of U.S. manufactured products fell sharply in the July-September quarter. A weakening global economy is also weighing on exports. China’s economic growth is slowing and Germany, Europe’s economic engine, saw its economy shrink in the third quarter. U.S. business investment in capital goods such as industrial machinery, computers and cars has stumbled in the second half of the year after rising at a healthy clip in the first six months of 2018. That slowdown will weigh on growth in the final three months of the year. The economy expanded at a healthy 3.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to a separate report from the Commerce Department Friday. But most economists forecast a mild slowdown in the fourth quarter to a roughly 2.5 percent to 3 percent pace. The Trump administration has said that its corporate tax cuts, which cut business taxes from 35 percent to 21 percent, will lead to a sustained burst of business spending on long-lasting equipment that will fuel robust economic growth. Yet the drop in business investment since the summer suggests otherwise. One potential future drag on investment spending is the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which have fallen below $50 a barrel. That typically causes drilling companies to cut back on their purchases of steel pipe, machinery and other drilling equipment. Yet in November, orders for fabricated metal product rose 0.5 percent. Orders for primary metals, such as steel and aluminum, jumped 1 percent, after falling for the two previous months. Machinery orders fell, and demand for computers and electronic equipment was flat.

LAKE WALES, FLORIDA — Oakley Transport Inc., an ISO-certified liquid and dry bulk food grade transporter, has instituted an annual appreciation award, labeled Safety’s Super Sweepstakes, for outstanding driver safety and performance. The winner will receive a 2020 GMC Sierra pickup truck. Beginning January, all active Oakley Transport driving professionals will have an opportunity to earn tickets for merit-based achievements. These feats are broken into two primary categories that encompass safe performance and length of service. “Because our productivity and profitability are directly impacted by the level of safety achieved by our driving professionals throughout the year, we focus on helping our team reach their true potential on the road by practicing safety at every touchpoint of their route,” said Kelly McDowell, Oakley Transport’s director of safety. “We recognize the challenges that are faced on the road, and we are committed to awarding our professionals for all their safe days and faithfulness to our family. As a result, our goal with Safety’s Super Sweepstakes is to not only thank our professionals, but continue to encourage a higher standard of excellence behind the wheel.” Tickets for Safety’s Super Sweepstakes will be earned in conjunction with the company’s monthly safety bonuses and Quarterly Safe Performance Incentive award, evaluated through Oakley’s Smart Drive system. At the end of the year, tickets will be compiled for a drawing and the pickup truck winner will be announced in January 2020. “We are extremely thankful for all of our drivers who provide their time, talents, and tenacity every day out on the roadways and where trust matters” said Pete DeStasio, Oakley Transport’s Driver Recruiter Director. “This annual awards program is just a small token of our gratitude.” Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Lake Wales, Florida, Oakley Transport has established itself as the premier leader in the liquid and dry bulk food grade transportation sector with the synergies of complimentary logistic services. The family-owned and operated company enhances the customers’ supply chain with over-the-road and dedicated transportation services in the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. For more information on the company and its services visit: oakleytransport.com.    

COLUMBUS, Ind. — U.S. trailer order volume slid sequentially for the second month in a row, but it’s all relative when one considers that more than 45,000 net orders were posted in November, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report. The report explains that November was the fifth highest net order month in industry history, following September’s all-time record and October’s second-best in history. “Seasonals call for a small sequential net order gain to close the year, but several factors make that a challenge,” said Frank Maly, director–CV transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. “With the last three months all ranking in the top five all-time, how likely are fleets to continue to increase commitments that currently stretch into fall 2019? Several factors, including softening freight rates, some interest-rate driven uncertainty, and the continuing potential of tariff wars, cloud the economic horizon.” Maly said it was important to remember that year-to-date volume already ranks 2018 as the highest net order year in history, with one month remaining. “The orderboard is just above twice the level of this point last year, and eight of ten trailer categories are in the black year-over-year with dry vans, reefers, heavy lowbeds, and liquid tanks all posting triple-digit percentage improvement.” ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

JOPLIN, Mo. — CFI, a North American logistics and full-truckload carrier subsidiary of TFI International Inc., will assume responsibility for the Optimal Freight logistics company effective January 1, 2019. Since 2011, Optimal Freight has operated out of Chicago under the TFI umbrella to provide transport of truckload and LTL shipments throughout the United States, Canada and Mexico. Its services include dry van, temperature controlled, expedited, over dimensional, LTL and intermodal. “We are thrilled at the prospect of learning from the talented individuals at Optimal Freight while better supporting this group under the CFI Logistics umbrella,” said CFI President Greg Orr. “The timing for this transition is ideal as CFI expands its logistics division and customer service offerings in 2019.” With U.S. offices in Joplin, Dallas and now Chicago, CFI Logistics is an asset-enhanced 3PL operating in North America utilizing all modes of transportation. Orr said the organization provides unique cross-border expertise and 24/7 bilingual customer support. In the U.S. CFI manages 15 owned U.S. terminals and drop lots, and through sister company CFI Logistica, CFI’s Mexico operations include an LTL network and solutions through C-TPAT carriers into South America. “We are very excited to begin working with the Optimal team to enhance the solutions we collectively provide our customers,” said CFI VP Logistics Bill Carter. Business continuity will remain intact as Optimal Freight rebrands and operates as part of the CFI Logistics organization.

BOSTON — A coalition of nine Northeast and mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia have announced an agreement to work to impose regional limits on carbon emissions from transportation sources. The goal of the landmark agreement, announced Tuesday, is to create “a regional low-carbon transportation policy proposal that would cap and reduce carbon emissions from the combustion of transportation fuels through a cap-and-invest program.” The group said emissions from transportation sources account for the largest portion of the region’s carbon pollution. The states will work to draft a more detailed plan within a year. At that time each state will decide whether to formally adopt the policy. Proceeds from the program would go toward developing low-carbon and more resilient transportation infrastructure — from bike lanes to public transit to zero-emission vehicles. The agreement is in part a recognition of the role that transportation plays in the release of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. The agreement was endorsed by Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and the District of Columbia. A joint statement released by the states and DC says they will work together to decide key elements of a final deal including: the level at which to cap emissions; monitoring and reporting guidelines to ensure a decline in emissions over time; shared priorities for investment of proceeds, and clear timelines for putting a final deal in place. The deal, if finalized, would be modeled after the nine-state regional “cap-and-invest” system for power plant emission known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy said the agreement reflects the urgency of the challenges posed by carbon emissions. “Do not be fooled by the climate change deniers in Washington, climate change is real and if we do not take significant action now to reduce carbon emissions the harm to our economy, communities, and the planet will be irrevocable,” Malloy said in press release. Massachusetts Secretary of Transportation Stephanie Pollack said the state has taken steps to address the release of greenhouse gases, but said more work needs to be done and “the transportation sector is key to reducing carbon emissions.” Not everyone embraced the agreement. Christopher Carlozzi, the Massachusetts state director for the National Federation of Independent Business, called the agreement “a fiscally dangerous and regressive proposal.” “Thousands of businesses and commuters in the commonwealth will incur higher expenses — not only directly at the pump but also indirectly for a wide array of goods and services as the impact of new gas fees ripples through the economy,” Carlozzi said in a press release. Other critics, including Massachusetts state Sen. Mike Barrett, said the agreement isn’t aggressive enough and “puts the most hesitant states in the driver’s seat.” “The governors are, in effect, asking for a one-year timeout on addressing emissions from transportation,” Barrett said. “Given the urgency of the problem, that’s a big ask.” Environmental groups hailed the agreement. “As climate pollution rises, it’s more important than ever that state leaders take action to address climate change,” Sierra Club regional director Mark Kresowik said in a statement. “Developing a modern, clean transportation system by expanding access to electric vehicles, public transit, and walkable and bikeable communities will save lives, create new jobs, and help people get where they’re going faster.”  

WASHINGTON — The average price per gallon for on-highway diesel dropped another 4 cents for the week ending December 17 to $3.121, according to the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy. It marked the ninth consecutive week that the price has declined. In all, the price has dropped 27.3 cents a gallon from the week of October 15 when the price stood at $3.394. The price is, however, 14.8 cents a gallon higher than the first week of 2018 and is 22 cents higher than the comparable week in 2017. All regions of the country reported declines for the week ending December 17 led by a 6.1 cents decline in the Rocky Mountain states and a 5.2 cents decline in California. For a complete list of prices by region for the past three weeks, click here.    

ARLINGTON, Va. — The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4 percent in November to 118.9 from October’s level of 118.4. “The fact that tonnage rose in November after a strong October is impressive. It was likely due to some continued pull forward of shipments from China due to the threat of higher tariffs, as well as solid retail sales last month,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “With continued strength in November, tonnage growth is on pace to be the best year since 1998.” October’s change over the previous month was revised down to +5 percent (+6.3 percent was originally reported in our press release on November 20). Compared with November 2017, the SA index increased 7.6%, down slightly from October’s 8.1% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage increased 7.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 119 in November, which was 3.1 percent below the previous month (122.8). In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 70.2 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 10.77 billion tons of freight in 2017. Motor carriers collected $700.1 billion, or 79.3 perdent of total revenue earned by all transport modes. ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 10th day of the month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons and key financial indicators.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for October fell to a reading of 3.17, more than a point lower than September, which had seen a significant dip from August when the TCI measure was in plus double digits. Stabilizing truckload rates and a short-lived run up in diesel prices were largely responsible for a continued deterioration in trucking conditions during October, FTR said, adding that in spite of the fact that the October reading was the lowest since August 2017, FTR’s outlook for trucking conditions look stronger in the near term with the TCI rebounding to a better level for months to come. Details of the October TCI are found in the December issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published November 30. The ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light’ section in the current issue discuss the likely return to stability in the trucking market in 2019 after a significant period of extraordinary strength. Along with the TCI and ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light,’ the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation. “October’s conditions index confirms the general sense that the current cycle has peaked,” said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking. “Although we anticipate improved conditions for the remainder of 2018 and much of 2019 compared to October, we appear to be headed gradually toward neutral territory.” The Trucking Conditions Index tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel price, and financing. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence fleet behavior. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance. In life, running a fever is an indication of a health problem. It may not tell you exactly what’s wrong, but it alerts you to look deeper. Similarly, a reading well below zero on the FTR Trucking Conditions Index warns you of a problem, while readings high above zero spell opportunity. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings (both up or down) are warning signs for significant operating changes. FTR’s analysts collect and analyze all data likely to impact freight movement, issuing consistently reliable reports for trucking, rail, and intermodal transportation, as well as providing demand analysis for commercial vehicle and railcar. FTR’s forecasting and specially designed reports have resulted in advanced planning and cost-savings for companies throughout the transportation sector. For more information about the work of FTR, visit www.FTRintel.com.  8                                        

COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research’s preliminary estimate for November 2018 net trailer orders is 43,600 units. Final volume will be available later this month. ACT’s methodology allows it to generate a preliminary estimate of the market that should be within +/- 3 percent of the final order tally. “Trailer orders continued to set records in November. Led by dry vans, OEMs saw the highest November order volume in history,” said Frank Maly, ACT’s director of CV transportation analysis & research. “Dry van volume has been a consistent influence in the market; September, October, and November ranking as the first, second, and third highest dry van order months ever recorded. That resulted in the last three months taking three of the top five volume spots for total industry orders in history.” Maly said the order strength in both tractors and trailers indicate fleets continue to plan ambitious investment levels in the upcoming year, as they continue to join the ever-extending order queue. The record-setting order flow has had a major impact on trailer industry backlog, he said. “We show the industry’s total orderboard closed November at nearly 239,000 trailers. That’s the highest level on record, breaking the previous mark set in December 1994,” Maly said” At current production rates, on average, industry backlog stretches well into the third quarter of next year. As is the norm, dry vans and reefers are both out longer, actually extending into the fourth quarter of 2019, while vocational trailer categories have shorter, but still very robust horizons. ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. For more information about ACT’s State of the Industry: US Trailer Report, go to http://www.actresearch.net/services/publications/state-of-the-industry-u-s-trailers/.

ST. LOUIS — Cass Information Systems said Thursday that November was another month of high volatility and a sense of growing uncertainty in both the U.S. and global financial markets. Cass is a provider of transportation, utility, waste and telecom expense management and related business intelligence services, disbursing more than $50 billion annually on behalf of its clients. “Despite all of the ‘hand-wringing’ on Wall Street, the transportation economy continues to signal economic expansion,” said a report written by Donald Broughton, founder and managing partner of Broughton Capital, an economic and equity research firm. “The hard data of physical goods flow, which is uninfluenced by human emotion, confirms that people are still making things, shipping things, and buying/consuming things. Although not at the scorching pace attained earlier this year, expansion is still taking place at an above average pace.” Broughton said Cass was not alarmed about the growth in shipments slowing to only 0.6 percent in November. However, he said Cass would be negligent if it did not acknowledge two storm clouds on the economic horizon: The tariffs and threats of even higher tariffs (even though the latest headlines and tweets suggest that there may be a resolution) with China (the world’s second largest economy) has throttled volumes in some areas of the U.S. economy (most notably agriculture exports and other select raw materials); The recent decline in WTI crude (currently below $55 a barrel) has not fallen below the marginal cost of production for fracked crude in almost all areas of the U.S., but it has made it less profitable and significantly lowered the incentive to drill ever more holes, effectively slowing the rate of growth in the industrial economy. “These potential problems acknowledged, Cass maintains a cautiously bullish outlook given the freight markets, or more accurately goods flow, have a well-earned reputation for predictive value without the anchoring biases that are found in many models which attempt to predict the broader economy,” Broughton said. Transportation continues to be a leading indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, Broughton said. “Shipments first turned positive 26 months ago, while expenditures turned positive 23 months ago,” Broughton said. “The current level of volume and pricing growth is suggesting that, while it’s still growing, the U.S. economy is simply not growing at the rate it was and that it may have reached its short-term expansion limit. The 0.6 percent year over year increase in shipments is a deceleration from the 6.2 percent achieved last month and is an even more marked deceleration from the low double-digit levels achieved in the first five months of 2018. Cass is confident that the increased spending on equipment, technology and people will eventually result in increased capacity in most transportation modes. That said, many modes are continuing to report ‘limited amounts of capacity’ or even “no capacity” at any price shippers are willing to pay.” The consumer economy is accelerating, Broughton said. “There are many widely disparate variables influencing the consumer economy. Everything from demographics and immigration policy, to interest rates and tax policy, to productivity growth and the unemployment rate influence the direction of, and the rate of change in, the consumer economy,” Broughton said. “Cass monitors all of these factors and dozens more, but in the short-term, we find the most reliable predictors of the consumer economy are dry-van truckload and import container volumes. Import container volume is especially predictive in the fall of the year as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season.”