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Cass sees uncertainty in markets, warns of two possible ‘storms’

ST. LOUIS — Cass Information Systems said Thursday that November was another month of high volatility and a sense of growing uncertainty in both the U.S. and global financial markets. Cass is a provider of transportation, utility, waste and telecom expense management and related business intelligence services, disbursing more than $50 billion annually on behalf of its clients. “Despite all of the ‘hand-wringing’ on Wall Street, the transportation economy continues to signal economic expansion,” said a report written by Donald Broughton, founder and managing partner of Broughton Capital, an economic and equity research firm. “The hard data of physical goods flow, which is uninfluenced by human emotion, confirms that people are still making things, shipping things, and buying/consuming things. Although not at the scorching pace attained earlier this year, expansion is still taking place at an above average pace.” Broughton said Cass was not alarmed about the growth in shipments slowing to only 0.6 percent in November. However, he said Cass would be negligent if it did not acknowledge two storm clouds on the economic horizon: The tariffs and threats of even higher tariffs (even though the latest headlines and tweets suggest that there may be a resolution) with China (the world’s second largest economy) has throttled volumes in some areas of the U.S. economy (most notably agriculture exports and other select raw materials); The recent decline in WTI crude (currently below $55 a barrel) has not fallen below the marginal cost of production for fracked crude in almost all areas of the U.S., but it has made it less profitable and significantly lowered the incentive to drill ever more holes, effectively slowing the rate of growth in the industrial economy. “These potential problems acknowledged, Cass maintains a cautiously bullish outlook given the freight markets, or more accurately goods flow, have a well-earned reputation for predictive value without the anchoring biases that are found in many models which attempt to predict the broader economy,” Broughton said. Transportation continues to be a leading indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, Broughton said. “Shipments first turned positive 26 months ago, while expenditures turned positive 23 months ago,” Broughton said. “The current level of volume and pricing growth is suggesting that, while it’s still growing, the U.S. economy is simply not growing at the rate it was and that it may have reached its short-term expansion limit. The 0.6 percent year over year increase in shipments is a deceleration from the 6.2 percent achieved last month and is an even more marked deceleration from the low double-digit levels achieved in the first five months of 2018. Cass is confident that the increased spending on equipment, technology and people will eventually result in increased capacity in most transportation modes. That said, many modes are continuing to report ‘limited amounts of capacity’ or even “no capacity” at any price shippers are willing to pay.” The consumer economy is accelerating, Broughton said. “There are many widely disparate variables influencing the consumer economy. Everything from demographics and immigration policy, to interest rates and tax policy, to productivity growth and the unemployment rate influence the direction of, and the rate of change in, the consumer economy,” Broughton said. “Cass monitors all of these factors and dozens more, but in the short-term, we find the most reliable predictors of the consumer economy are dry-van truckload and import container volumes. Import container volume is especially predictive in the fall of the year as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season.”  

No fake news here: Despite November decline, Class 8 truck sales remain at solid pace

This isn’t fake news, folks. The Class 8 truck manufacturing industry, despite seeing a 14.8 percent decline in November sales as compared to October, recorded its best November total since the well-documented pre-buy year of 2006, and the second best November since at least 2000. According to WardsAuto, 21,302 Class 8 units were sold in November as compared with 25,007 in October. Data show that 22,539 Class 8 units were sold in November 2006 as motor carriers deluged OEMs while trying to beat the 2007 new engine emissions requirements. Even in that record year when 284,008 Class 8 trucks were sold, there was a 10.1 percent decline in November sales compared to October. November 2018 sales beat November 2017 by a 21.8 percent. And year-to-date, sales are up 32.2 percent as 2018 heads toward the second or third best year in sales. So far in 2018, the industry has sold more Class 8 trucks in 11 months than all but year-long totals in 2006 (284,009), 2005 (252,792) and 2015 (248,797). A typical December could make 2018 the third best year for the period of 2000-2018. With the November decline, only two OEMs did better than October. Western Star was up 8.1 percent with sales of 510 versus 345 in October, and Mack showed a 3.3 percent gain with sales of 1,450 compared with 1,403 in October. All nameplates showed an increase over 2017 topped by Volvo’s 604 percent gain and Western Star’s 47.8 percent increase. International at 57.9 percent and Volvo at 57.5 percent head up the list of year-to-date gains.    

Decline in cost of gas offsets pricier freight trucking services

WASHINGTON — U.S. wholesale prices barely rose last month as a sharp decline in the cost of gas offset pricier freight trucking services and mobile phone plans. The Labor Department said Tuesday that the producer price index — which tracks cost changes before they reach the consumer — increased 0.1 percent in November from the previous month. That’s down sharply from a 0.6 percent gain in October. Wholesale prices rose 2.5 percent from a year ago, the smallest annual increase this year. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent in October and 2.7 percent from a year earlier. A second measure of core prices, which also excludes wholesale and retail profit margins, rose 2.8 percent from a year ago, down from a recent peak of 3 percent in July. “With pipeline inflationary pressures moderating, we think there is little risk of core consumer price inflation rising further over the coming year or so,” said Michael Pearce, an economist at Capital Economics. The figures suggest inflation pressures have subsided since late last year. That could affect the Federal Reserve’s deliberations on how quickly to lift short-term interest rates in 2019. Fed policymakers are expected to hike rates for the fourth time this year at their next meeting later this month. But the pace of rate increases next year is uncertain as recent speeches by some Fed officials have hinted that the central bank could take a more wait-and- see approach Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent in October, the government said last month. Excluding food and energy, they rose 2.1 percent. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, tracked by the Commerce Department, increased 2 percent in October from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, that gauge increased just 1.8 percent from 12 months ago. That’s just above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. The Fed seeks to keep inflation at that level to avoid rapidly rising prices but also to prevent a destabilizing bout of deflation, which lowers prices but also wages and can make it much harder to repay debts. Wholesale gas prices fell 14 percent last month, the steepest fall since February 2016. That is a function of lower oil prices, which have plunged from $75 a barrel in early October to $51.70 on Tuesday. The sharp fall has prompted the oil cartel OPEC to plan production cuts to boost prices. Lower wholesale prices could bring more relief at the pump for consumers. The average price for a gallon of gas nationwide fell 29 cents from a month ago to $2.41 Tuesday.

Weaker spot market indicates ‘muted’ holiday freight peak

PORTLAND, Ore. — The national average spot van rate increased 6 cents to $2.14/mile during the week ending December 8 although demand for trucks was weaker on high-traffic lanes for retail and e-commerce freight, said DAT Solutions, which operates the DAT network of load boards. The national average spot refrigerated rate declined 2 cents to $2.46/mile and the spot flatbed rate gained 3 cents to $2.43/mile, the first increase in the national average rate in five months. Lower fuel prices continue to exert downward pressure on the spot rates, which incorporate a surcharge portion. The national average price of on-highway diesel fell 4.6 cents to $3.16/gallon, its lowest point since the end of April. Van trends: Momentum stalls on top lanes The number of van load posts on DAT load boards was down 13 percent last week while truck posts surged 53 percent as truckers returned from the previous holiday week. Looser capacity pushed the load-to-truck ratio down to 5.5 loads per truck compared to 7.2 the previous week. Despite the higher national average rate, momentum in the spot van market stalled by midweek as freight volumes fell 5.3 percent on the Top 100 lanes. Rates on those lanes slumped as well, with 62 lanes down an average of 1.9 percent, or roughly 4 cents per mile, compared to the previous week. There were large drops in van freight activity in Atlanta, where the number of posted loads fell by 11.3 percent, and Los Angeles, down 8.9 percent, among other van freight hubs. Absent a rebound this week, the anticipated holiday peak for van freight appears to be muted. Reefer trends: Outbound rates drop in major markets Reefer load posts on DAT load boards slipped 16 percent compared to the previous week. Truck posts rose 9 percent, which pushed the national ratio down 23 percent to 6.3 reefer loads per truck. The average outbound rate took a step down in several key reefer markets, including Grand Rapids, Mich. ($3.34/mile, down 10 cents), Chicago ($2.93/mile, down 14 cents), Philadelphia ($3.19/mile, down 7 cents), and Los Angeles ($3.13/mile, down 13 cents). Flatbed trends: Load-to-truck ratio slips Flatbed demand slipped slightly last week after a surge in the previous week. The number of flatbed load posts fell 4 percent while truck posts increased 16 percent compared to the previous week. The national load-to-truck ratio dropped from 23.9 to 19.8 loads per truck. DAT Trendlines are generated using DAT RateView, which provides real-time reports on spot market and contract rates, as well as historical rate and capacity trends. The RateView database is comprised of more than $57 billion in freight payments. DAT load boards average 1 million load posts per business day. For the latest spot market load availability and rate information, visit www.dat.com/trendlines and follow @LoadBoards on Twitter.

On-highway average diesel price slips 4.6 cents to $3.161 a gallon

For the eighth week in a row Monday, average on-highway diesel prices fell, ending up at $3.161 a gallon compared with $3.207 last week, a decrease of 4.6 cents. Again, all 10 sectors monitored by the U.S. Energy Information Administration took a slide from the week before. And once again, California had the highest price at $3.887 (a 3.5 cents-a-gallon loss) while the Gulf Coast region showed prices at $2.934, 5.5 cents down from last week’s $2.989. The Gulf Coast also saw the biggest weekly slide Monday at 5 5.5 cents a gallon. Still, the on-highway average is 25.1 cents up from what it was a year ago this time. It will take oil prices to increase for several weeks before that will be reflected in diesel prices. And that hasn’t happened. Crude oil gave up last week’s gains Monday and benchmark U.S. crude fell 3.1 percent to $51 per barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 2.8 percent to $59.97 a barrel in London, The Associated Press reported. It’s a resumption of the steep decline for crude’s price that began in October. Oil prices steadied last week after OPEC and other major oil producers said they will reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting from January. The cuts will last for six months, AP said. For more details on diesel prices by region click here.

Schneider honored with New North Workplace Excellence Award

GREEN BAY, Wis. — Excellence at work isn’t only an expectation for Schneider associates. It’s a framework for them to succeed. The Excellence@Work initiative is designed to encourage Schneider associates to “find a better way” to deliver continuously improving results – and it has led to the company being honored with the 2018 New North Workplace Excellence Award for the second time. The award was presented by New North, an economic development agency covering 18 northeast Wisconsin counties, and Right Management, a leading global career and talent strategy firm. This is the 11th year the organizations have combined to award businesses for their competitive advantage through people practices that lead to successful business results. Schneider, a provider of transportation and logistics services, was the sole company to receive the award. Earlier this year, Schneider welcomed New North judges on-site for a company tour and interview in which they learned firsthand about Schneider’s Excellence@Work framework. The Excellence@Work initiative is designed to strengthen company culture, associate engagement and to encourage all Schneider associates to “find a better way” to deliver continuously improving results and rewarding work, according to Chris Lofgren, president and chief executive officer of Schneider. The framework consists of lean, process automation and strategic sourcing solutions. Lean: Lean maximizes value through associates’ commitment to continuous improvement and the reduction of waste. Through a brief training video, “Power of One,” all new associates learn how they can develop better ways to approach work. In addition, three other lean training courses are available to associates who seek to not only understand how they can impact their individual work, but to help others in the organization improve processes. Process Automation: Process automation supports the business by automating existing everyday transactions and freeing up people to perform value-added work. Automation software such as Blue Prism enables Schneider associates to work with business units to reduce cost, enhance quality and accelerate enterprise processes by creating a virtual workforce. Strategic Sourcing: Strategic sourcing supports deploying the right talent against the right work to drive results. This allows the organization to leverage a broad, flexible and productive workforce. Schneider has also developed an interactive tool to assist leaders in determining the best staffing solution for work that needs to be accomplished. Beyond the Excellence@Work framework, Schneider’s career growth programs, leadership development opportunities and goal-setting practices set it apart from other organizations, Lofgren said. “Our associates are the true winners of this award,” he said. “It is their continued commitment to Schneider’s success that makes this company a place where people come to have a career, not just a job.” The Excellence@Work framework has allowed Schneider to engage associates in finding better ways to automate and accomplish work, Lofgren said, adding that is also encourages them to seek out and perform fulfilling work that results in associate development, engagement and superior business results. For more information on working for a company committed to its people, visit www.schneiderjobs.com.    

US hiring slowed to 155K jobs, trucking gains on seasonally adjusted data

WASHINGTON  — U.S. employers added 155,000 jobs in November, a slowdown from recent months but enough to suggest that the economy is expanding at a solid pace despite sharp gyrations in the stock market. The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate remained 3.7 percent, nearly a five-decade low, for the third straight month. Average hourly pay rose 3.1 percent from a year ago, matching the previous month’s figure, which was the best since 2009. CAPTION FOR PHOTO Laurence Marzo, left, and Ty Ford, right, move a conveyor belt into place to help unload a truck carrying merchandise at a Walmart Supercenter in Houston.  (Associated Press: DAVID J. PHILLIP) The economy is expanding at a healthy pace, but rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, ongoing interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve and weakening global growth have roiled financial markets. Analysts expect growth to slow but remain solid in 2019 as the impact of last year’s tax cuts fade. On a seasonally adjusted basis, for hire trucking gained 4,500 jobs; on a not seasonally adjusted basis, the industry lost 1,200 jobs. The jobs figure was less than many economists forecast, but few saw the report as a sign of a broader slowdown. “The economy continues to churn out new jobs and reflects the strong underlying business conditions that point to steady, albeit slower job growth and economic activity in 2019,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “This report strongly implies that a recession is not looming just over the horizon.” The report is unlikely to dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising short-term interest rates at its meeting later this month, as expected, Brusuelas said. But it suggests the Fed may not hike rates next year as rapidly as many investors have feared. The ongoing job gains are pushing down unemployment rates to historically low levels for a variety of groups. The unemployment rate for men aged 20 and above fell last month to 3.3 percent, the lowest in 18 years. And the rate for Americans with just high school diplomas dropped to 3.5 percent, the lowest since December 2000. The African-American jobless rate declined to 5.9 percent, matching May’s figure as the lowest on record. November’s job gains are down from October’s robust 237,000, which was revised lower from last month’s estimate. Hiring has averaged 195,000 a month for the past six months, modestly below an average of 212,000 in the previous six. Hiring in November was led by health care firms, which added 40,100 jobs, and professional services such as accounting and engineering, which gained 32,000. Manufacturing companies hired 27,000 new workers, the most in seven months and a sign that trade tensions have yet to weaken factory hiring. Construction firms cut back, however, adding just 5,000 jobs, the fewest in five months. Hiring also slowed in restaurants, bars and hotels. Most recent data have pointed to solid economic growth. Americans increased their spending in October by the most in seven months, and their incomes grew by the most in nine months, according to a government report last week. Consumer confidence remains near 18-year highs, surveys show. And both manufacturing and services companies expanded at a healthy pace in November, according to a pair of business surveys. The housing market, though, has stumbled this year as the Fed’s rate hikes have contributed to sharply higher mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes have fallen 5.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest annual decline in more than four years. Investors, however, are mostly focused on where the economy is headed. They are worried that the U.S.-China trade war could still intensify, despite an agreement over the weekend between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping that included postponing a planned U.S. tariff hike for 90 days. Higher tariffs would compound the risks for a global economy that is already grappling with dismal growth figures from Europe and Japan. The interest rate paid by longer-term bonds has also fallen sharply in the past month, panicking investors, while short-term rates have declined by much less. That typically signals a weaker economy ahead. And the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates three times this year and is likely to do so a fourth time later this month, thereby raising borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. The Fed has signaled that it could increase rates again next year.

Demand for vans, reefers on spot market especially strong

PORTLAND, Ore. — Demand for vans and refrigerated trucks on the spot truckload freight market was exceptionally strong during the week ending December 1, according to DAT Solutions, which operates the DAT network of load boards. The national average van rate and reefer rate increased 1 cent per mile while the flatbed rate held steady, halting an eight-week decline. Load-to-truck ratios increased for all three equipment types. As expected, load posts and truck posts increased significantly in a week that follows a holiday-shortened week. The number load posts was up 54 percent while truck posts gained 21 percent. Demand is expected to remain strong through the holidays. National average spot truckload rates: Van: $2.08/mile, up 1 cent compared to the previous week Flatbed: $2.40/mile, unchanged Reefer: $2.47/mile, up 1 cent Van trends: Van load posts increased 39 percent and truck posts increased 23 percent compared to the previous week. The van load-to-truck ratio rose from 6.4 to 7.2. Rates were higher on 63 of the top 100 van lanes, including several that are strong for retail freight: Columbus to Buffalo, up 31 cents to $3.99/mile Philadelphia to Columbus, up 20 cents to $1.84/mile Seattle to Spokane, up 31 cents to $3.78/mile Outbound rates from Los Angeles are 11 percent higher than they were a month ago, but several lanes declined last week, including L.A. to Dallas, down 24 cents to $2.41/mile. Flatbed trends: Flatbed load posts skyrocketed 103 percent last week while truck posts increased 34 percent. That caused the national load-to-truck ratio to jump from 15.9 to 23.9. Reefer trends: Reefer load posts surged 46 percent, more than expected when going from a holiday week to a non-holiday week, and truck posts increased 10 percent. That caused the national load-to-truck ratio to jump from 6.2 to 8.3 loads per truck. With the holidays approaching, meat and potato-growing regions in the Midwest saw big upticks in reefer volumes, and fresh fruit and vegetables boosted load counts out of California. The biggest reefer rate increases were scattered on lanes across the country: Los Angeles to Denver, up 29 cents to $3.52/mile Elizabeth, New Jersey to Boston, up 28 cents to $4.43/mile Grand Rapids to Philadelphia, up 35 cents to $3.98/mile Dallas to Houston, up 19 cents to $3.05/mile Twin Falls, Idaho, to Baltimore—a long-haul reefer lane—gained 24 cents to $3.26/mile. DAT Trendlines are generated using DAT RateView, which provides real-time reports on spot market and contract rates, as well as historical rate and capacity trends. The RateView database is comprised of more than $57 billion in freight payments. DAT load boards average 1 million load posts per business day. For the latest spot market load availability and rate information, visit www.dat.com/trendlines and follow @LoadBoards on Twitter.  

Class 8 truck orders subside in November

Two companies that analyze truck orders have reported the torrid pace of the past few months subsided in November. According to ACT Research, preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 27,900 units in November, down 36 percent sequentially from October, but only 15 percent lower from November. Note that these numbers are preliminary. Complete industry data for November, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT in mid-December. FTR reported preliminary North American Class 8 orders for November fell to 27,500, as the market winds down from five consecutive months topping 40,000 units.  November orders were the lowest total this year and the weakest since September 2017. However, the drop off in order activity was expected, as OEM’s have nearly filled their order boards for 2019.  Backlogs will start to recede, but still remain close to record volumes. North American Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have now totaled 499,000 units. “Through year-to-date November, Class 8 orders have totaled 468,600 units, an average monthly order intake of 42,600 units per month,” said Steve Tam, ACT’s vice president. “November typically has a slightly above average order seasonal factor, and as such, actual data is moderately lower when seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment drops November’s order intake to 26,800 units, down 29 percent from October.” “It was expected that orders would fall fairly soon, as the available 2019 slots filled up,”: said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles. “A couple of the OEMs that had some open capacity actually had solid order numbers, while the rest appear to be nearly sold out for next year. This drop in orders was reasonable considering the huge volumes of the last five months, although 27,500 is not that bad of a number, Ake said, adding that the freight fundamentals remain strong and we still expect the equipment markets to have a great year in 2019.” “We do expect cancellations to rise in November,” Ake said. “Not as a result of market weakness, but because backlogs are enormous, and fleets will continue to move orders around as needed. This trend is expected to last well into next year. With OEMs filling up the last available build slots, it is possible that orders may drop below 20,000 in December.”  

USA Truck rebrands to focus on comprehensive capacity solutions

VAN BUREN, Ark. —USA Truck, a capacity solutions provider headquartered in Van Buren, Arkansas, has updated its branding as “USAT Capacity Solutions.” The new branding better reflects a focus on comprehensive capacity solutions offerings that enhance the customer experience and service quality, according to James Reed, president and CEO. The company is focused on being a top service organization that improves the customer experience via more comprehensive solutions offerings, more efficient processes, and better customer-facing systems, Reed said. This rebranding reflects the shift toward customer experience as among the company’s highest priorities. “The USA Truck brand needed to be refreshed to bring clarity and unity to all of our service offerings as the company moves toward excellence and growth,” said Tim Guin, EVP and chief commercial officer. “The brand is one of the most recognized brands not only in our industry but also throughout the country.” The company now offers access to additional capacity far beyond the 2,000+ tractor asset fleet. USAT Capacity Solutions offers dedicated; intermodal COFC and TOFC solutions; Logistics solutions with over 15,000 trucking partners offering Dry Van, Refrigerated, Flatbed, Heavy Haul, and other modes. Mexico continues to be significant to the current and future growth plans for the business. “We want customers to think of USAT Capacity Solutions as the ‘go to’ provider when they have challenges in their supply chain. Our new marketing brand is more consistent with our stated strategy and organizational priorities,” Reed said. For more information, visit www.usa-truck.com or www.usatlogistics.com

ACT outlook predicts Class 8 production to continue growth trend into 2019

COLUMBUS, Ind. — According to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine Outlook published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates, Class 8 production is expected to continue its growth trend into 2019, but changes in demand for straight trucks and tractors will impact the type of diesel engines ordered. “Tractors represented 73 percent of total Class 8 production in 2018, but are forecast to fall to 68 percent by 2021, with straight trucks expected to grow to 32 percent,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates. “Simultaneously, the trend to smaller displacement engines in Class 8 will continue through the forecast period, with 12-14L engines exceeding the 14L category for the first time in 2019.” Regarding Classes 5-7, Rhein said, “The V8/10 engine configuration is predominant in the Class 5 segment, where gasoline penetration is increasing. In Classes 6-7 trucks, 6-cylinder diesel engines remain the predominant engine configuration.” “Diesel power is under attack long-term for use in on-highway commercial vehicles. Alternative power is being developed, tested, and refined, while diesel engines are also undergoing transition to become more fuel efficient and clean.” said Ken Vieth, general manager of ACT Research. “Emission regulations are one of the main drivers of alternative fuel adoption, which is why the Engine Outlook includes a section on the commercial vehicle regulatory environment. It is vital for industry participants to stay up-to-date on developments like the recent EPA update to the NOx emission standards for heavy-duty engines and funding awarded under the Diesel Emission Reduction Act (DERA).” The latest NA On-Highway Engine Outlook published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates highlights this alt fuel activity for CV GVWs 5-8, including five-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends. The Engine Outlook ties to the detailed North American commercial vehicle forecasts published monthly by ACT. For more information, visit www.actresearach.net.

Diesel prices slide 7th straight week to $3.207

Although oil prices jumped Monday, December 3 amid talk that OPEC will cut production, it wasn’t soon enough to keep diesel prices from slipping for the seventh week in a row, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The national on-highway average was down 5.4 cents to land barely above $3 a gallon at $3.207. All of the EIA’s 10 reporting regions had diesel price drops from the week before, with the Midwest sector showing a hefty decrease of 6.8 cents a gallon to $3.177 from $3.185 the week prior. The Gulf Coast saw prices scoot slightly below the $3-a-gallon mark to $2.989. The area generally has the cheapest diesel in the country because of its proximity to oil refineries. The Lower Atlantic area had the next cheapest diesel at $3.098 a gallon, down 4.7 cents from $3.145 on November 26. California diesel rung up at $3.922, down 4.2 cents from last week’s $3.964. To view all prices by region click here. Associated Press sources contributed to this report.  

FTR’s September Shippers Conditions Index continues to improve with positive trend expected into 2019

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for September reflected continued improvement in the environment for shippers with a new reading of -7.6, more than one point better than August, freight forecasting company FTR has reported. Overall conditions are still not favorable for shippers, but FTR’s SCI measure is expected to steadily moderate in 2019. Increasing capacity and productivity in both truck and intermodal, and the resulting stabilization in rate growth, should impact shippers positively through next year with the SCI forecast to reach a neutral reading by the fourth quarter of 2019. “The slow improvement in conditions for shippers that was present toward the end of the summer continued in September, but it will be a slow crawl back to a neutral position over the next year,” said Todd Tranausky, vice president of rail and intermodal at FTR. “Conditions for shippers are not as bad as they were earlier in 2018, but remain a long way from ideal.” The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance. In life, running a fever is an indication of a health problem. It may not tell you exactly what’s wrong, but it alerts you to look deeper. Similarly, a reading well below zero on the FTR Trucking Conditions Index warns you of a problem…and readings high above zero spell opportunity. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment. Double digit readings (both up or down) are warning signs for significant operating changes.

Maverick Transportation to open driving academy

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Maverick Transportation will open a new driving school, Maverick Driving Academy with the first class set to being December 3. The academy will be located on the company’s North Little Rock, Arkansas, campus. “One of the biggest challenges that trucking companies face today is attracting new drivers to the industry,” said John Culp, president of Maverick Transportation. “We have been successfully training drivers for many years and are excited to announce the addition of CDL education to our curriculum. Maverick Driving Academy will offer a seamless path to employment at Maverick, for those seeking a new career as a professional truck driver.” The company opened up its first training facility in North Little Rock in 2005 where it has provided drivers with industry-leading training and securement curriculum, Culp said, adding that Maverick’s new driving school will be an expansion to the company’s existing programs. Students will receive the necessary CDL education and training to become professional drivers. “Our new school is a way to add to the driver education that has already been a vital part of our growth and success over the years,” said Culp. “We are committed to growing our company ‘The Maverick Way’ and we’re looking forward to having these new drivers walk through our doors.” Culp said Maverick has long had a strong reputation for consistently offering its drivers one of the best compensation packages in the industry. “Other driver benefits at Maverick include pay increases and bonus pay opportunities, excellent home time, weekly guarantee pay, paid orientation and training, 401k plan and match, company-paid life insurance, paid vacation, health and dental plans, and a driver referral bonus program,” Culp said. To learn more about the opportunities at Maverick visit www.maverickdrivers.com or call 800-201-7695. Founded in 1980, based in Little Rock, Arkansas, and operating over 1,700 units, Maverick provides over-the-road and dedicated service to the flatbed, glass, and temperature control transportation markets throughout North America. To learn more about Maverick Transportation visit www.maverickusa.com.  8          

Volume, productivity up in October, ACT Research index shows

COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index showed the supply-demand balance rising to 55.6 on a seasonally adjusted basis in October from 50.1 in September. The strong increase in the Volume Index and the downtick in the Capacity Index both pressed the balance higher, now showing some tightness returning to the trucking industry. This follows an essentially balanced market in September. “We saw good sequential improvement in October freight volume and truck utilization, which we expect to continue through the holiday season,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “But, we’ll have to be careful of the effects of pre-tariff shipping for the next several months. This corresponds to the 18 percent year-over-year increase in container imports at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in October, so it’s fair to say the pre-ship is helping, and will likely reverse to temporarily loosen supply-demand in early 2019.” The October fleet purchase intentions reading indicated an uptick in equipment demand, with 57.2 percent of respondents planning to buy trucks in the next three months, up from 55.5 percent in September. “After record year-to-date orders, this series should remain elevated as long lead-time truck orders are built and hit the highways,.” Denoyer said. As part of this month’s survey, ACT Research queried fleets about what future questions they would like to see asked of the industry. “Most of the questions that survey responders would have us ask in the future center around drivers, from recruiting strategies and sign-on bonuses to identification of the main reasons truck drivers leave their companies,” Denover said. “Other concerns of fleets in ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index survey included contract pricing and bidding, technology and collision mitigation, and regulation impacts.” ACT is a publisher of new and used commercial vehicle industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market. For more information on ACT, please visit http://www.actresearch.net.        

ATA tonnage index jumps 6.3 percent

ARLINGTON, Va. — The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 6.3 percent in October to 119.9 from September’s mark of 112.8. “After slowing at the end of the third quarter, truck freight surged in October,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Last month’s strength was due, at least in part, to strong import numbers, especially on the West Coast. This is likely a pull ahead of imports as shippers try to take delivery of goods before January 1 when tariffs on a large list of goods China increases from 10 percent to 25 percent.” September’s change over the previous month was revised up to +0.1 percent (-0.8 percent was originally reported in our press release on October 23). Compared with October 2017, the SA index increased 9.5 percent, up from September’s 3.8 percent year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage increased 7.3 percent. The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 124.4 in October, which was 11.8 percent above the previous month (111.2). In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 70.2 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 10.77 billion tons of freight in 2017. Motor carriers collected $700.1 billion, or 79.3 percent of total revenue earned by all transport modes. ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 10th day of the month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons and key financial indicators.

Price of diesel drops another 3.2 cents a gallon to $3.282

WASHINGTON — The average on-highway prices of a gallon of diesel dropped another 3.5 cents for the week ending November 19, according to the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy. Since the week ending October 15, the price has gone down 11.2 cents, but it is still 37 cents higher than comparable week in 2017. The largest regional decline occurred in the Midwest where the price dropped 4.6 cents a gallon. There was a 4-cent a gallon decline along the Gulf Coast, on the West Coast and in California. The smallest decline — nine tenths of a penny — was reported in the New England. For a complete list of prices by region for the past three weeks, click here.

Cass: Transportation economy continues to signal solid economic growth

ST. LOUIS — The Transportation economy continues to signal solid economic growth, perhaps not at the scorching pace attained earlier this year, but still at an above average pace. That’s the key takeaway from October’s Cass Freight Shipments and Expenditures Indices released Thursday. “Although we subdivide the economy via multiple other data feeds that represent smaller segments of the freight flows, we continue to see the indices as one of the single strongest proxies for what is happening in the overall U.S. freight markets,” said Donald Broughton, author of the report. Broughton is founder and managing partner of Broughton Capital, a deep data driven quantimental economic and equity research firm. The freight markets, or more accurately goods flow, has a well-earned reputation for predictive value without the emotional or anchoring biases that are found in many models which attempt to predict the broader economy, Broughton wrote. According to the report, despite the strong pre-ship in May and June, inventories across the U.S. economy fell in the second quarter and were a one percentage point headwind to the GDP (the reduction of inventory is a negative to the calculation of GDP, while the increase of inventory is a positive to the calculation of GDP). Without the drop in inventories that occurred, GDP would have come in at 5.1 percent in the second quarter. “We should also point out that we are lapping increasingly difficult comparisons, and infrastructure is showing signs of being at our near full capacity in most modes,” Broughton said. “This makes further large percentage increases in volume difficult without significant investments in people, equipment, and technology.” Despite all the recent turmoil in the financial markets and the resulting concerns about the strength of the economy, the Cass Freight Shipments Index is clearly signaling that the U.S. economy, at least for now, continues to be extraordinarily strong, Broughton said. “Simply stated, when shipment volume is up 6.2 percent, it is the result of an expanding economy,” Broughton wrote. “We are hard pressed to imagine a scenario, sans a catastrophic geopolitical event, in which such a strong rate of freight flow expansion was possible or even a precursor to an economic contraction. Our confidence in this outlook is emboldened by the knowledge that, since the end of World War II (the period for which we have reliable data), there has never been an economic contraction without there first being a contraction in freight flows. Conversely, during the same period, there has never been an economic expansion without there first being an expansion in freight flows.” The Cass Expenditures Index is signaling continued strong pricing power for those in the marketplace who move freight, Broughton said, adding that demand is exceeding capacity in most modes of transportation by a significant amount. In turn, pricing power has erupted in those modes to levels that continue to spark overall inflationary concerns in the broader economy. “With the Expenditures Index up 12 percent, we understand those concerns, but are comforted by two factors: the cost of fuel (and resulting fuel surcharge) is included in the Expenditures Index and the cost of diesel was up 20.9 percent in October; almost all modes of transportation are using the current environment of pricing power to create capacity,” Broughton said. “To the extent that pricing is materially exceeding the marginal cost of creating that capacity, market participants are investing heavily in the exact activities which kill pricing power in commodity markets (i.e., expansion of capacity with the belief that current pricing power will endure for an extended period of time). “As we explained in previous months, we do not fear long-term inflationary pressure as technology provides multiple ways to ever increase asset utilization and price discovery in all parts of the economy especially in transportation. In fact, we are continuing to see more signs that electronic logging devices, which initially hurt the capacity/utilization of truckers (especially small truckers), are becoming an ever-smaller impediment to capacity utilization. Many of the truckers which were the most adversely effected are now getting most, if not all, of the original loss in utilization back. This is especially true in the dry van and reefer marketplaces of trucking. Even the flatbed segment of trucking, which initially faced the greatest challenges with productivity after the adoption of ELDs, has begun to adapt.” For more information on the Cass index, visit www.cassinfo.com    

American Truck Dealers calls on Congress to repeal federal excise tax on HD trucks

WASHINGTON — As America has just celebrated the 100-year anniversary of the end of World War I, the American Truck Dealers (ATD) is calling on Congress to repeal the 101-year-old federal excise tax (FET) on heavy-duty trucks. Initially imposed in 1917, the FET was meant to be a temporary measure to help pay for World War I. Although the tax was briefly repealed after the Great War ended, it was reinstituted and today is the highest percentage tax that Congress levies on a product. The FET routinely adds between $12,000-$22,000 to the cost of a new truck. “The FET is as outdated as biplanes and trench warfare,” said Jodie Teuton, vice president of Kenworth of Louisiana and Hino of Baton Rouge. “This tax discourages deployment of today’s cleaner, safer and more fuel-efficient heavy-duty trucks.” Two bills, H.R. 2946 and S. 3052, have been introduced which would repeal the antiquated FET. ATD and a coalition of trucking industry stakeholders are urging Congress to revisit this tax and consider the FET repeal as part of a likely infrastructure bill coming next year. Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., introduced S 3052, which is similar to the “Heavy Truck, Tractor and Trailer Retail Federal Excise Tax Repeal Act” introduced by Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif., in June 2017. Gardner’s bill was referred to the Senate Finance Committee. LaMalfa’s bill was referred to the House Ways and Means Committee. There has been no committee action on either of the bills. Both Gardner and LaMalfa will be members of the new Congress that begins in January 2019 and would have to reintroduce their bills if no action is taken by the end of the current Congress. “This burdensome tax creates excessive costs that are passed on to truckers, who play an essential role in maintaining our nation’s economy,” Gardner said. “I was happy to introduce legislation to repeal it.” “The FET is not simply a barrier to selling more vehicles – it is a barrier to the public being able to drive alongside the cleanest, safest and most technologically advanced trucks built today,” said Jake Jacoby, president and CEO of the Truck Renting and Leasing Association. “To have a tax that literally discourages businesses from purchasing the newest available equipment hurts all involved – from the manufacturer, to the dealer, to the purchaser and ultimately the end user.” Mike Kastner, managing director of NTEA-The Association for the Work Truck Industry, said, “The 12-percent federal excise tax on trucks and truck equipment primarily manufactured in the U.S. is antiquated, overly complex, and counterproductive to safety and environmental concerns. We advocate that this tax be repealed for the betterment of the work truck industry and the economy at large.” “Now is the time to repeal the FET and replace it with a 21st century policy and revenue structure that meets the needs of our economy,” Teuton said. ATD, a division of the National Automobile Dealers Association, represents more than 1,800 medium- and heavy-duty truck dealerships in the U.S. CAPTION FOR PHOTO The American Truck Dealers are using World War I era posters to encourage Congress to end the federal excise tax on heavy-duty trucks. (Courtesy: AMERICAN TRUCK DEALERS)  

Survey: Same of number of respondents are paying for trucks with cash or finance through leasing

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Fleet Advantage, a provider of truck fleet business analytics, equipment financing and lifecycle cost management has released the second part of its recent annual benchmarking survey with topics on procurement and disposal of Class-8 heavy-duty trucks for private fleet and for-hire carriers. According to the survey, the same number of respondents said they pay for their trucks through cash purchase (34 percent) as finance through leasing (34 percent). Equipment acquisition strategies have become a larger area of focus recently, especially with more private fleets and for-hire carriers replacing aging trucks to meet the demand of the economy. According to research firm, FTR, North American Class-8 orders for October were 43,000 units, surpassing 40,000 units for a record eighth month in a row. In addition to the economy, last year’s corporate tax reform has also created more incentive for firms to place orders on new trucks, according to Brian Holland, president and CEO of Fleet Advantage. The survey revealed that nearly half of respondents (47 percent) said the recent tax reform and new lease accounting standards are impacting their lease versus purchase decision when acquiring new trucks. The change to the corporate tax rate, now at 21 percent, along with new bonus depreciation rules make leasing more favorable than purchase, Holland said. Under the new FASB accounting standards, customers with operating leases will show a better return on assets (ROA), better return on invested capital (ROIC), and better return on capital employed (ROCE). The majority of survey respondents (37 percent) said they dispose of used equipment through trade-in, followed by wholesale (33 percent). Holland said equipment disposal is a significant part of lifecycle asset management, and an ineffective disposal and replacement strategy can negatively impact an organization’s bottom line on the back end of the deal. One-in-four survey respondents (25 percent) said they are currently receiving below-market value for their used trucks. “Having access to the right business intelligence, as well as a consultative approach to equipment acquisition can make a world of difference to a company’s bottom line when it comes to equipment disposal,” Holland said. “As evidenced by the heated economy and backlog of truck orders, private fleets and for-hire carriers are more aggressive today in replacing aging trucks. We’re now seeing the effects of having access to this type of business intelligence that is shifting the business philosophy of asset management more toward a lease model.”