ST. LOUIS, Mo. — The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.9% m/m in October, after a 1.7% decline in September.
“In a sign that private fleet growth continues to affect for-hire demand, the ongoing softness in shipments comes as Class 8 tractor sales rebounded from supply constraints in Q2,” Cass said in a press release. “Although goods demand growth is driving broad freight volume growth, as can be seen in intermodal, imports, and freight GDP, it is still not reaching the for-hire market.
- The index was essentially unchanged from September in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, falling just 0.1%.
- Shipments declined by 2.4% y/y in October after a 5.2% y/y drop in September.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, this index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in November and about 4% for the full year.
Cass Freight Index – Expenditures
According to the release, the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.5% m/m in October, partly due to another decline in fuel prices. The y/y decline moderated to 5.9% from 6.6% in September.
With shipments down 1.9% m/m, we infer the 1.5% decrease in expenditures included rates up 0.4% m/m in October (see our inferred rates data series below).
- In SA terms, our expenditures index fell 1.7% m/m, with shipments down 0.1% and rates down 1.5%.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% this year.
Inferred Freight Rates
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.4% m/m in October, after a 4.2% m/m gain in September.
- On a y/y basis, Cass Inferred Freight Rates™ fell 3.6% y/y in October, after a 1.4% y/y decline in September.
- Most of the y/y decline is now due to lower fuel prices as rates have started to inch higher more broadly.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index will still fall 3%-4% y/y in November, according to the release. The normal seasonal pattern from here would leave inferred rates down 7%-8% in 2024, with a small upward turn in Q1’25.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
