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Used truck volumes fall 14% month-over-month in May

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ACT Vice President Steve Tam said in the context of lower unit sales and rising inventory levels, the slowing price appreciation is a strong indication that demand for used trucks in waning. (Courtesy: ACT RESEARCH)

COLUMBUS, Ind. — Preliminary used Class 8 volumes (same dealer sales) fell 14% month-over-month in May, the second consecutive sequential drop, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research. Additionally, the report indicated that longer-term comparisons yielded a 22% decline compared to May 2018, as well as a year-to-date drop of 16%.

Other data released in ACT’s preliminary report included year-over-year comparisons for May 2019, which showed that average prices rose 5%, while average miles shed 1%, and average age increased 7%.

“A spring slowdown is not uncommon, and sales generally increase a bit in the summer, but with the headwinds in the freight market, that is unlikely,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research. “Those who watch the industry closely have been expecting the strong pricing environment to soften this year, and based on preliminary May data, it appears as though that transition may have started.”

Tam said in the context of lower unit sales and rising inventory levels, the slowing price appreciation is a strong indication that demand for used trucks in waning. Given a similar story in the freight market, the development makes sense.

ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck Report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo).

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

For more information about ACT’s Used Truck reports, visit www.actresearch.net.

 

 

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FTR Trucking Conditions Index for July improved to reading above neutral

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FTR said although some positive trucking conditions index readings are possible over the next year, the outlook is for primarily negative to neutral readings throughout the time frame. (The Trucker file photo)

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for July improved slightly to a just above neutral reading of 0.28.  Lower diesel prices offset the effects of lower capacity utilization pushing the reading into positive territory for the first time since January. Although some positive readings are possible over the next year, the outlook is for primarily negative to neutral readings throughout the time frame.

Details of the TCI for July are found in the September t issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published August 30. The “Notes by the Dashboard Light” section issues readers a warning about the possibility for slower growth ahead.

Along with the TCI and “Notes by the Dashboard Light,” the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation.

“Although it has become common to hear dire warnings about the state of the trucking industry, the truck freight market as a whole is hardly collapsing,” said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking. “Rapid cooling from last year’s extraordinarily strong market certainly has left many weak carriers exposed, but freight volume and rates are holding up reasonably well – certainly if viewed in a longer-term context. Still, most of the near-term risks to our outlook are on the downside.”

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market, including freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel price and financing.

The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings (up or down) suggest significant operating changes are likely.

In addition to the monthly updates on trucking conditions, FTR offers a weekly Trucking Market Update in the State of Freight Podcast.

The weekly update, hosted by Avery Vise, covers spot market and economic indicators and major industry developments. To listen to recent episodes and download the indicators that are covered, go to www.FTRintel.com/podcast.

To learn more about FTR visit www.FTRintel.com or call 888-988-1699 or email  or email FTR@FTRintel.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Average on-highway gallon of diesel up 1.6 cents, but crude oil up 12.97%

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The average price of a gallon of on-highway diesel for the week ending September 16 was 28.1 cents lower than the comparable week in 2018. (The Trucker file photo)

WASHINGTON — The average on-highway price of a gallon of diesel rose 1.6 cents a gallon to $2.987 for the week ending September 16, according to the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy.

It was the first weekly increase since the week ending July 8 when the price went up 1.3 cents a gallon to $3.055.

What, if any, impact did the attack on the Saudi oil facility have on the price this week is hard to determine since the attack occurred only early last Saturday.

“Our team is keeping a close eye on the impact of the Saudi oil fire on the diesel market,” said a spokesperson for Pilot Flying J. “We have already seen the market react, but it’s too early to predict the extent of the impact. Our No. 1 priority remains getting our guests from point A to point B as quickly and conveniently as possible.”

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 12.97% to $61.93 Monday.

All regions of the country increased with the exception of the Central Atlantic States (New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey) where the price dropped nine tenths of a penny to $3.013.

The largest increase was in the West Coast minus California at 3 cents top $3.161. The next largest increase was 2.6 cents in the overall West Coast region (California, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington) and the Rocky Mountain states (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Montana.

The price for the week ending September 16 was 28.1 cents lower than the comparable week in 2018.

For a complete list of prices by region for the past three weeks, click here.

 

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DOT’s freight transportation index rises to new all-time high in July

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The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. (The Trucker file photo)

WASHINGTON — The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.9% in July from June, rising to a new all-time high after declining for two consecutive months, the Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) said Thursday.

From July 2018 to July 2019, the index rose 2.9% compared to a rise of 6.0% from July 2017 to July 2018.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

The BTS said the Uly increase was broad based with increases in rail carloads, rail intermodal, trucking, pipeline and air freight. There was a small decline in water transportation.

The TSI increase took place against a background of mixed results for other indicators.

The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Index declined in July, reflecting decreases in mining and manufacturing and an increase in utilities. Personal income increased by 0.1%, while housing starts declined by 4.0%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index decreased 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating continued but slowing growth.

The BTS said despite small decreases in both May (-0.1%) and June (-0.3%), the July index was 0.6% over its April level and 0.2% over its previous record high in November 2018.

The record high level was reached even though the index increased in only four of the eight months since November. From a low point in March 2016, the index climbed 12.8% until reaching a new high in May 2018. From that point, the index has exceeded its levels in all months prior to May 2018. The July 2019 index was 46.6% above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession.

For-hire freight shipments in July 2019 (139.0) were 46.6% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The July 2019 level reached its all-time high.

For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.1% in July compared to the end of 2018.

For-hire freight shipments are up 15.4% in the five years from July 2014 and are up 41.4% in the 10 years from July 2009.

 

 

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