COLUMBUS, BLOOMINGTONInd. — ACT Research is reporting March preliminary North America Class 8 net orders at 16,000 units, down 8.3% y/y while FTR is reporting an even lower number, 15,700.
Both numbers are at the lowest in three years.
“The first quarter of 2025 has been defined by one word: uncertainty,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst, ACT Research. “Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, private fleets’ pausing expansion, or a response to trade and policy uncertainty is difficult to surmise and remains an open question.
Tariffs are a Significant Factor
“Persistent uncertainty in tariffs, the economy, freight, and regulations could notably disrupt fleet replacement cycles – potentially prompting fleets to either accelerate purchases ahead of expected price hikes or, more likely, delay investments until market conditions stabilize,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “The latter scenario appears supported by the 25% y/y decline in net orders for 2025 to date. Cumulative net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024 through March 2025) were down by 8% y/y as well.”
According to Moyer, new and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are expected to significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components. OEMs and suppliers may consider shifting production to mitigate tariff exposure, but such strategic adjustments are costly, complex, and time-consuming, further complicating industry planning.
Decline Larger Than Expected
According to FTR, preliminary North American Class 8 net orders totaled 15,700 units in March, declining 14% month-over-month (m/m) and 22% year-over-year (y/y). This figure is significantly below the seven-year March average of 24,760 net orders and represents a slightly larger-than-expected seasonal m/m decline. The vocational market accounted for the bulk of the m/m declines, although on-highway orders were predominantly weaker as well. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months totaled 277,927.
“The implementation and continued threat of tariffs among North American trading partners combined with ongoing economic and freight market uncertainty have significantly dampened fleet investment in Class 8 trucks and tractors in recent months,” FTR said. This situation is further complicated by anticipated revisions to the U.S. EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations.”
According to Vieth, Class 8 orders decreased 8.3% y/y to 16,000 units seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders were up slightly, increasing 1.1% from February to 16,500 units (198k SAAR), one of the lowest 1-month SAAR readings in almost three years.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
