COLUMBUS, Ind. — The key theme ACT Research been highlighting for more than a year now is the insourcing of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets — which has perhaps been the defining feature extending the soft freight cycle in an economy that has surpassed expectations — but that is nearing an end, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Lower equipment supply, particularly by private fleets, may play a key role in a market turn in 2025, in our view,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “And (in mid-November), an FMCSA regulation could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states who have not heretofore been required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While difficult to quantify, when state driver’s license authorities downgrade a large number of CDLs on Nov. 18, it should have two positive effects on the industry: making our roads safer and leading truckload rates higher.”
According to an ACT Research press release, the DAT load/truck ratio is not exactly a scale of 1 to 10. It can go past 11. It reached the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018 and the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. Our aggregated seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio broke above 7 in early October, suggesting spot rates will rise modestly in the near term.
“But the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to drive rates higher in 2025 is not here yet,” Denoyer said.
For a breakdown of the changes coming to the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse, check out this commentary by trucking attorney Brad Klepper.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
