COLUMBUS, Ind. — April preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 15,600 units, down 1,800 units from March but 30% higher than a very easy year-ago comparison, according to ACT Research.
“Even in good years, Q2 typically delivers below-trend orders, while Q4 orders can trigger optimism at the bottom of the cycle,” shared Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
With the long bottom in freight volumes and rates continuing in the most recent data from DAT amid lingering market overcapacity, carrier profitability as illustrated by the publicly traded for-hire carriers’ financial performance was dismal in Q1, Vieth notes.
“Entering the historically worst time of the year for orders, at the bottom of on-highway tractor buyers’ profitability cycle, is producing results in-line with expectations,” he added.
With April’s seasonal factor being positive, the month’s intake is boosted to 16,600 units. Despite the 12-month seasonally-adjusted annual rate at 290,000, demand in the near-term is decelerating.
Used Market
Meanwhile, used Class 8 average retail sale price dipped 2.9% month-over-month to $60,100 in March.
“On a year-over-year basis, used retail prices were 20% lower,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research. “In our most recent update, pricing pressure abated moderately from Q4’23 to Q1’24. Prices are expected to remain relatively stable through most of 2024, transitioning to y/y growth in late Q3 or early Q4. Sequential growth most likely will take place at the end of 2024.”
Regarding volumes, Tam said that March same dealer Class 8 retail truck sales pulled back sequentially, counter to the seasonal bump indicated by history.
However, the total market same dealer sales volume rose 17% from February to March.
Compared to March 2023, the retail market advanced 3.9%. The auction segment swelled 48% year-over-year, with wholesale volumes more than doubling (+103% year-over-year), according to Tam.
Combined market results saw volumes increase 26% year-over-year. Expectations for 2024 call for moderate growth relative to 2023, Tam concluded.
Born in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, and raised in East Texas, John Worthen returned to his home state to attend college in 1998 and decided to make his life in The Natural State. Worthen is a 20-year veteran of the journalism industry and has covered just about every topic there is. He has a passion for writing and telling stories. He has worked as a beat reporter and bureau chief for a statewide newspaper and as managing editor of a regional newspaper in Arkansas. Additionally, Worthen has been a prolific freelance journalist for two decades, and has been published in several travel magazines and on travel websites.
