COLUMBUS, Ind. – The longer inflation remains elevated, the more aggressively the Fed will respond with higher interest rates, according to ACT Research’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest.
This increases the chances of a sharper decline in economic activity, results in fewer commercial vehicles required to facilitate this subdued activity and will likely exacerbate downward pressure on spot and contract rates, adversely impacting carrier profitability.
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets.
“We are already seeing the slowest y/y growth in the money supply (M2) since 1995, and that metric will turn negative in coming months,” ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth said. “Recent economic data are inconclusive: the labor market continues to add jobs at a pace that implies too-hot wage inflation pressures, but the most recent core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading indicates inflation may be moderating.”
Vieth said the Fed will continue on its course of tighter monetary policy until the data signal unambiguously that inflation is moderating, as still deep-pocketed consumers and businesses drive demand for labor in structurally constrained markets.
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