COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research analysts welcomed commercial vehicle industry leaders at their semi-annual seminar in February and discussed the current market conditions and forecast for the next six months and beyond.
Regarding the Class 8 forecast, Kenny Vieth, ACT Research’s President and Senior Analyst, shared, “It’s currently a very mixed market. On one hand, we have a very weak situation in the US for-hire tractor market as significant 2023 private fleet share gains took loads out of an already weak 2023 freight market. On the other, there is lingering pent-up vocational truck demand in the US and Canada, a reshoring-and peso-fueled resurgence in demand for equipment in Mexico, and a still-healthy US macroeconomic story bolstered by a swing in the retail inventory cycle from the de-stocking that occurred through 2023.”
He continued, “Truckers buy trucks when they make money, and for-hire carriers are experiencing their worst financial performance since the aftermath of the Great Recession. Despite weak for-hire fundamentals, counter-cycling strength in these other markets have kept orders surprising to the upside.”
For ACT, the big, and arguably interrelated, questions right now are: Will we see any early pre-buying in 2024 ahead of EPA mandates, and will we continue to see private fleets grow their capacity?
“The key economic drivers that helped the US economy avoid recession in 2023 were consumption, government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment,” said Chris Kuehl, managing director at Armada Corporate Intelligence, and a guest speaker on the seminar economic panel.
Regarding ACT’s economic outlook, David Teolis, ACT Research’s Chief Economist, added, “Economic developments that will affect 2024 are interest rate cuts, wage inflation, elections, supply chain, and worker shortage. ACT’s economic outlook is for a gradual slowdown through mid-2024, then an upward tick through 2025.
Born in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, and raised in East Texas, John Worthen returned to his home state to attend college in 1998 and decided to make his life in The Natural State. Worthen is a 20-year veteran of the journalism industry and has covered just about every topic there is. He has a passion for writing and telling stories. He has worked as a beat reporter and bureau chief for a statewide newspaper and as managing editor of a regional newspaper in Arkansas. Additionally, Worthen has been a prolific freelance journalist for two decades, and has been published in several travel magazines and on travel websites.
