Freight volumes are down according to Case Freight Index data compiled in a report authored by ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer.
The decline is from June 2023 to June 2024 in what Case calls a market characterized by overcapacity. The volumes are down 10.4 percent over two years according to details of the report.
Of course, variables exist.
Part of the driving force in the decline can be attributed to Hurricane Beryl, the first storm in years to be classified as a Category 5 hurricane, which “brought a record number of tornadoes into the U.S. for July, and did about $30 billion in damage. A more active hurricane season could be another “different this time” variable this year.brought a record number of tornadoes into the U.S. for July, and did about $30 billion in damage. A more active hurricane season could be another “different this time” variable this year,” according to Denoyer’s report.
“Freight market conditions are usually soft in early July, but DAT’s load/truck ratio rose sharply in the days following Beryl,” he stated. “Of course, the surge will likely be short-lived, but in our view, this signals a market closing in on balance, if still not quite there yet.”
Freight Index Expenditures were down 9.4& while Inferred Freight rates were down 3.6%, and Truckload Linehaul index was also down by 2.4 percent.
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index was down 1.8% month-to-month in June, amid ongoing softness in for-hire demand
The index also fell 1.8% month-to-month in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms to a four-year low. The report predicts that decline to be a “true low.”
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.0% month-to-month in June. The 9.4% year-to-year decline was similar to the 9.0% drop in May, according to the report.
Regarding to the Inferred decline, the rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 3.6% year-to-year in June, similar to the 3.4% drop in May which followed thirteen straight double-digit declines, according to the report.
For clarification, Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment, according to Denoyer’s report.
“The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, etc.”
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures monthly fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, fell 1.0% m/m in June as the soft market balance persists, as shippers wring out a little more savings following a period of stability,” Denoyer explains.
The year-to-year decline of 2.4% widened from 1.7% in May, Denoyer explains. While this has narrowed from a 15% year-to-year decline a year ago, it seems unlikely to turn positive quickly.
As a broad truckload market indicator, this index includes both spot and contract freight. With spot rates steady over the past year, downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening, but recent slight increases in spot rates are not yet enough to turn contract rates higher, Denoyer’s report explains.
Bruce Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has lived in three states including Arkansas, Missouri and Georgia. During his nearly 20-year career, Bruce has served as managing editor and sports editor for numerous publications. He and his wife, Dana, who is also a journalist, are based in Carrollton, Georgia.
