WASHINGTON — The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.8% in September from August, falling for the first month after two consecutive months of growth, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).
From September 2023 to September 2024 the index rose 0.4%, according to TSI.
“The level of for-hire freight shipments in September measured by the Freight TSI (139.2) was 1.6% below the all-time high of 141.4 reached in August 2019,” said TSI. “BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.”
The August index was revised to 140.3 from 139.9 in last month’s release.
Analysis
The Freight TSI decreased in September due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, pipeline and air freight while rail carload, rail intermodal and water grew.
The September decrease came in the context of declines in several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was down 0.3% in September, reflecting declines of 0.4% in manufacturing and 0.6% in mining while utilities grew by 0.7%. Housing starts were down 0.5% but Personal Income increased by 0.3%.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was unchanged at 47.2. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
Although the September Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the August index is now being released. The index increased 0.8% from July to August. Seasonally adjusted transit and rail passenger grew, while air passenger declined.
The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-nine months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 54th consecutive month.
Trend
The September freight index decrease was the first since June, following two months of growth, leaving the index 0.6% above its level in June 2024. The index increased 4.8% since August 2021. The September Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 12.0%; the index increased month-over-month in 31 of the 53 months since that low.
Year to date
For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.5% in September compared to the end of 2023.
Long-term trend
For-hire freight shipments are up 1.0% in the five years from September 2019 and are up 14.0% in the 10 years from September 2014.
Same month of previous year
September 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.4% from September 2023 (Tables 4, 5).
3rd quarter changes
The freight TSI fell 1.1% in the 1st quarter, rose 1.0% in the 2nd quarter, and rose 0.6% in the 3rd quarter (Table 6).
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
