The year 2025 continues to disappoint those who were looking forward to increased freight volumes and rates during the first quarter. After a disappointing January, spot freight rates for van and refrigerated fell again in February, while flatbed rates stayed roughly even.
Truckstop reported in March that broker-posted loads on its board reflected a decline in dry van and refrigerated spot rates for nine of the previous 10 weeks; only flatbed rates had steadily gained. Refrigerated rates were at their lowest point since June 2020, while dry van rates were only a couple of pennies higher.
The DAT Trendlines report showed dry van spot rates falling from a national average of $2.15 per mile in January to just $2.02 in February — and so far, those rates remain below the $2-per-mile mark for March. Refrigerated rates have followed a similar trajectory, falling from January’s $2.54 to $2.35 in February and even lower for March. Flatbed rates remained stagnant at an average of $2.44 in both January and February but appear to have increased for March by eight cents per mile.
Both Truckstop and DAT Freight & Analytics reported rising freight volumes — a good sign for days ahead.
Economic woes continue
Unfortunately, the latest economic news could put a damper on the industry’s hopes for higher rates.
The stock markets continue to boil as implementation of tariffs — and threats of more — provide plenty of heat.
Fears of a recession and a decline in consumer confidence are making investors nervous about increasing shares of their favorite stocks. As consumer confidence declines, so do purchase decisions, whether it be homes, vehicles, appliances or whatever.
And, of course, when products aren’t moving from the shelves, they’re not moving in trucks to replace inventory.
“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist-global indicators at The Conference Board, a not-for-profit, non-partisan think tank that monitors economic trends, wrote in a press release. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.”
Freight expectations
The Cass Freight Index for Shipments showed a seasonally adjusted 4.9% increase in February over January. However, shipment numbers were down 5.5% from January 2024. The report notes that January rates were probably higher than they should have been due to severe weather events. The Cass Index for Expenditures declined as well, dropping 0.3% from January of this year — and 4.6% from January 2024.
It’s important to note that Cass derives its indexes from customer billing for several modes of transportation, including truck, rail, pipeline, ship and air, but the bulk of the data comes from trucking.
As for freight expectations, Tim Denoyer, senior analyst and vice president-commercial vehicles for ACT Research, outlined his thoughts when writing the Cass report.
“While the outlook is fraught with uncertainty, and freight demand will be challenged by tariffs, we highlight a silver lining for the for-hire freight market amid rising recession risk,” he wrote.
The ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index for Volumes showed a decline in February after four months of increases. A press release stated, “Trade policy uncertainty poses a risk to a weakening U.S. economy, and early data for 2025 show some signs of slowing growth. Retail sales were weaker than expected in January and goods inflation rose 3.1% year over year in January on tariff expectations.”
The ACT report also mentioned the growth of private fleets as a factor.
“After over two years of private fleet growth, for-hire carriers are having to compete more and more with private fleets for their share of the freight pie,” the report noted. “Private capacity additions are slowing and could slow further if threatened tariffs take effect, which could partly offset the risk to for-hire demand from tariffs.”
Driver availability
ACT’s Driver Availability Index showed the 33rd consecutive month that the market for hiring truck drivers improved.
“A large factor behind the sustained, elevated for-hire driver availability is likely the significant increase in wages during the pandemic,” the report noted. “Struggling owner-operators turning in their operating authorities have also provided a steady supply of experienced drivers for fleets.”
The availability of drivers tends to move in the opposite direction of freight availability and rates. When rates go up, carriers look to hire more drivers, and more drivers buy trucks and leave carriers to strike out on their own.
With rates hovering at low levels for months on end and fleet sizes continuing to shrink, finding qualified drivers today isn’t as much of a problem for most carriers. However, as the ACT report notes, retiring baby boomers and mass deportations could shrink the driver hiring market.
Contract freight gains
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported a 3% gain in tonnage for February after a small decline in January. The group’s Truck Tonnage Index, compiled from member surveys, reflects primarily contract freight.
“Some of the gain in February was due to accelerated imports early in the year as shippers rushed to bring products into the U.S. before tariffs hit,” Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist, noted in the report. “Even accounting for this, the first two months of the year were positive, all things considered, indicating that the freight recovery has indeed begun.”
The truck sales factor
If there’s good news in the numbers, it might be that monthly U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks in February totaled less than 16,000 for the first time since February 2022.
An overcapacity situation in trucking has served to suppress freight rates for several years. A reduction in the number of new trucks could help reduce the capacity supply, bringing it closer to the demand side of the equation.
Brakes applied on emissions mandates
Trump administration officials Zelden Lee, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy have both announced reviews of Biden-era rulings that impact the trucking industry.
Mandates for lowered greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and quota requirements for sales of zero-emissions heavy-duty vehicles are likely to be delayed, if not scrapped entirely.
Doing so should halt carriers announced intention to “pre-buy” tractors to avoid expected tractor price increases of up to $30,000 per truck for the 2027 model year.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
