CHARLOTTE, N.C. — RXO is releasing its proprietary Q1 2025 Curve Truckload Market Forecast showing a truckload market on the rise.
“The Curve has been a leading index for years — now, as a combined organization, it’s going to become even more robust,”said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “As the third-largest freight brokerage in North America, we have an immense set of data spanning industries, geographies and business sizes. “RXO is uniquely positioned to provide industry-leading insights, and we couldn’t be more eager to share them with shippers and carriers so they can make informed decisions based on changing market dynamics.”
The Curve
The quarterly forecast is continuing under RXO following the company’s acquisition of Coyote Logistics. It will now benefit from datasets thanks to the combined organizations, according to an RXO media release.
The Curve, originally published in 2018, is a proprietary index that measures the year-over-year rate of change in truckload linehaul spot rates, exclusive of fuel. By using thousands of daily shipments spanning nearly 20 years, the Curve gauges truckload cycles as the balance of carrier supply and shipper demand shifts in a dynamic, fragmented marketplace.
Q1 Curve Update
The Q1 Curve update — which recaps fourth-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market and provides a first-quarter freight market forecast — shows a truckload market on the rise, as rates again head higher year-over-year.
- The Q4 Curve index showed spot rates up 11.6% year-over-year at the end of 2024.
- The increase was driven by a combination of seasonal holiday shipping amidst tightening truckload capacity and favorable year-over-year comparisons.
- While we are still operating in a prolonged soft freight market, contractual rates are moving higher and momentum is building.
“Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven’t hit since Christmas 2022,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher. Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we’re seeing continued signs that we’re past the bottom of the cycle.”
To read the full Q1 Curve report, visit rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
