COLUMBUS, Ind. — Trucking data in May reflected a temporary slowing pace of price inflation.
There were higher truck orders, lower Cass Freight shipments and stalling spot trends — all showing an industry prioritizing planning for emissions rules over cost economics, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
As ACT references, starting with model year 2027 vehicles, NOx emissions must be reduced to 0.035 grams per horsepower-hour during normal operation, 0.05 grams at low load and 10 grams at idle, per the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPAs) new rules.
This is an 82.5% reduction from the current standard of 2 milligrams. The new standards are more than 80% stronger than current standards and take engine load into account. Many are worried that these new trucks will also cost more.
As for current truckload capacity, Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst, said that small fleets remain resilient as ever, but the record number of operating authority revocations over the past 18 months shows considerable capacity contraction.
For-hire truckload conditions are taking longer to improve this cycle than in prior ones, partly because of that resilience, Denoyer noted.
“But we think the ongoing capacity expansion by private fleets is outweighing the capacity contraction in the small part of the market,” he said. “Elevated equipment demand as fleets gear up for EPA’27 is a key factor likely to drag overcapacity on even further. The for-hire cycle will improve once excess capacity additions end. That will likely be a while.”
Denoyer said that, typically by this point in the cycle, Class 8 tractor orders have fallen considerably further, but longer-term considerations are outweighing cost economics in many cases.
“Strong truck orders provide more evidence of pre-buying ahead of 2027 emissions standards, likely extending overcapacity a while longer,” he said. “To the ongoing question of whether the truckload market rebounds or continues to bounce along the bottom, this situation may lead to some more bounces.”
The Trucker News Staff produces engaging content for not only TheTrucker.com, but also The Trucker Newspaper, which has been serving the trucking industry for more than 30 years. With a focus on drivers, the Trucker News Staff aims to provide relevant, objective content pertaining to the trucking segment of the transportation industry. The Trucker News Staff is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
