BOISE, Idaho — According to the latest Bloomberg | Truckstop survey, there is increased optimism for carriers driven by the less challenging conditions in Q4 of last year.
“While many carriers feel that rates and demand have yet to reach optimal levels, there is growing optimism about the outlook,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We believe the trucking cycle has turned, which should drive better spot and contractual rates, as well as robust earnings for carriers this year.”
Owner-Operators and Fleets Polled
The Bloomberg | Truckstop Q4 2024 Truckload survey shows:
- Demand outlook showing signs of improvement: Owner-operators are increasingly optimistic about the future following improved spot market conditions in Q4. Among respondents, 55% expect volume to increase over the next 3-6 months, marking a 15-point rise from Q3. Many carriers experienced a less challenging spot truckload market in Q4.
- Spot rates seeing some reprieve: Sentiment around rates has improved over the past three months, according to our Q4 survey, with 51% of respondents expecting an increase in the next 3-6 months—a 22-point jump. This optimism is fueled by better market conditions. Truckstop data shows spot rates rose 1.5% in Q4 and 7.8% year-over-year. Additionally, 13% of respondents reported rate growth compared to the previous year, a five-point increase from the Q3 survey.
- Carriers still unclear about the path ahead: Trucker sentiment about the economy has improved, with 59% of respondents believing the U.S. is in or near a recession—down from 80% in Q3 2024. Despite this more optimistic outlook, uncertainty remains. 44% of respondents are unsure about their professional future in the next six months. That is a 9-point increase from the previous quarter. Further market tightening could help boost spot rates and encourage truckers to stay in the industry. Truckstop’s Market Demand Index increased 28% on average in 4Q24 from 4Q23, the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains.
Demand Stabilizing
“Our latest survey results indicate that demand is stabilizing, and conditions are becoming less challenging, leading to increased optimism among carriers,” said Kendra Tucker, CEO, Truckstop. “Truckstop is dedicated to equipping carriers with the tools they need to operate more efficiently and profitably, offering innovative solutions that helps their businesses grow and adapt to industry changes.”
The survey of owner-operators and small fleets provides timely channel checks into the health of the spot market. The sample size was 176, consisting of dry-van, flatbed, temperature-controlled and specialized/diversified, hot-shot and step-deck carriers. Of the respondents, 53% operate just one tractor.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
