COLUMBUS, BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Preliminary net trailer orders are down for January compared to December, but are up as compared to January 2024.
According ACT Research, preliminary net trailer orders dropped about 3,100 units from December 2024 to January 2025. However, at 21,300 units, were higher compared to January 2024, up more than 51% y/y. FTR is reporting 23,966 trailer orders in January, a decrease from December numbers but 81% higher year-over-year.
Strong Order Intake
“Though past the traditional peak, we’re still in a period of ‘strong order’ intake,” said Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research & publications at ACT Research. “This month’s pattern of lower than December but still above average demand was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data are higher than the January 2024 intake, given the slowing demand that marked 2023 and led into the subdued market reported throughout most of 2024.”
Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers January’s tally to 19,300 units, but that’s about 10% above December’s seasonally adjusted intake, according to ACT. Final January results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Notwithstanding the improvement thus far in the 2025 order cycle, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity in the near term,’ McNealy said. “An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but on order volumes through Q1’25 and beyond.”
Total Trailer Production
According to FTR, total trailer production increased by 2% m/m in January to 12,042 units. However, production was down 35% y/y – 46% below the seven-year January average – and was still the second lowest monthly output since 2010. With total trailer net orders significantly outpacing production, backlogs increased by 12,210 units, pushing the backlog/build ratio up to 9.7 months, which is the highest since February 2023. While this higher ratio is largely attributed to exceptionally low production levels, it also suggests easing pressure on OEMs to further scale back production in the near term.
“Many fleets continue to prioritize purchasing power units over trailers – a trend unlikely to reverse given the approaching implementation of EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations on trucks,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst. During the 2025 order season so far, North American Class 8 net orders are up 4% y/y while U.S. trailer net orders are down 21%. Trailer OEMs have scaled back production, and prolonged cuts are possible if demand remains weak.
Tariff Troubles
“Tariffs threaten further disruption. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports planned to take effect next month along with the 10% additional tariff already imposed on Chinese imports and the currently paused but still possible 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will raise material costs, squeeze margins, and strain supply chains. Tariffs will affect not only fully assembled trailers imported into the U.S. but also domestically produced trailers, which depend on imported materials and components. Expect market volatility as OEMs try to adapt to uncertainty over scope and timing of tariff impacts.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
