COLUMBUS, BLOOMINGTON Ind., — Both Act Research and FTR are reporting a decrease in January Class 8 numbers.
“While January orders took a step down from the recent trend, strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity. In January, Class 8 orders dropped 5.1% y/y to 25,800 units,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “While down narrowly from last January, orders were down 30% against a seasonally stronger December. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 22% from December to 23,300 units, and a 279k SAAR. Over the past six months, orders have been booked at a 32,000-unit SAAR.”
January preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 25,800 units, down 30% m/m and 5% y/y, according to ACT.
Medium Duty
“MD Classes 5-7 orders continue their slowly deflating trajectory into still historically elevated truck and bus backlogs,” Vieth said. “ACT’s preliminary look at January NA Classes 5-7 orders puts the month’s volume at 15,100 orders, down 21% y/y and 10% below December’s intake.”
FTR Numbers Slightly Different
FTR is reporting preliminary North American Class 8 net orders in January totaled 24,000 units, down 28% month-over-month (m/m) and 15% year-over-year (y/y). This differs from ACT’s numbers of 25,800 units.
Below Seasonal Expectations
This figure is below seasonal expectations, falling short of the seven-year January average of 27,950 net orders, according to FTR. With looming threats of significant tariffs among the North American trading partners and increasing uncertainty for market participants, the positive momentum that held throughout the beginning of the 2025 order season appears to be facing some headwinds. Despite this, cumulative net orders from September 2024 through January 2025 for build in 2025 remain 3% higher y/y. Through January 2025, Class 8 orders have totaled 276,917 units over the last 12 months.
Tariff Troubles
“A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico – currently paused for trade negotiations through early March – and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices. Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs could accelerate or delay fleet upgrades. While OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production to mitigate potential tariff impacts, such changes are complex and will take some time to implement. Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers.”
While OEMs experienced an overall m/m decline in order activity for January, this softness follows several months of strong seasonal comparisons. The on-highway market accounted for the bulk of the m/m declines as vocational orders were flat m/m.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
