FTR Transportation Intelligence has reported that preliminary net trailer orders for April sank to the lowest level in the modern era (since 1990), coming in at just 300 units. April order activity was down 95% month over month and down 98% year over year. Trailer orders for the past 12 months now total 162,000 units.
The severe recessionary conditions caused many fleets to pull back on orders previously scheduled for 2020 delivery and place very few new orders. The dry van segment was hit particularly hard, and refrigerated van orders suffered some as well. Vocational orders remained tepid after falling significantly in March. Some specialty segments have held up better under the stress.
Numerous OEM plants were shut down for part of April; some for health reasons, some for lack of orders and some due to a combination of the two.
“Fleets remain in a severe wait-and-see posture until they can evaluate the damage done to the freight markets from the pandemic,” said Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles for FTR. “Since the recovery from the economic crisis is highly dependent on the status of the health crisis, there is a huge amount of uncertainty in the trailer market. Buying activity appears to be on hold until the fleets can see a clear path forward. The bigger fleets will resume replacing old trailers as soon as they see the economic restrictions lifted and freight growing again.
“The key element to the trailer market recovery is for fleet confidence to improve,” Ake continued. “Carriers saw freight softening at the beginning of the year, and then it cratered due to the recession caused by COVID-19. There are still way too many uncertainties present for fleets to buy new trailers in large numbers. They will take the minimum number of trailers needed in the short-run and then increase quantities dependent on the speed and size of the recovery. Orders should improve soon but are expected to remain modest for the next few months.”
Additionally, it is noted in this quarter’s issue of ACT Research’s Trailer Components Report that the U.S. trailer industry has shifted from the production/capacity challenges of the last three years, with corresponding pressures on the component and material supply chains, to a massive retrenchment in production levels.
“While there was no indication of any widespread COVID-19 lockdown-driven shutdowns at trailer OEMs in the past quarter, the dramatic cessation of fleet investment has caused OEMs to quickly reassess their production volumes and staffing needs,” said Frank Maly, director of commercial-vehicle transportation analysis and research for ACT Research. “The short- to medium-term outlook will be entirely dependent upon the return of business to some level of normality and stability, which will drive freight demand for both manufacturing and consumer spending.”
ACT Research’s U.S. New Trailer Components and Materials Forecast provides those in the trailer production supply chain, as well as those who invest in said suppliers and commodities, with forecast quantities of components and raw materials required to support the trailer forecast for the coming five years.
“Higher freight demand will eventually challenge fleet capacity and drive an improvement in freight rates, which will help build fleet confidence and generate the desired combination of equipment need and ability to pay,” Maly said. “However, the path to get to that point likely will be arduous.”
The ACT report alerted readers, in the meantime, to “expect trailer OEMs, where possible, to pull orders forward in an attempt to maintain production levels until the inevitable reductions in line rates and staffing occur,” which will also challenge materials and component suppliers, as bills-of-material will likely shift in both timing and specifications.
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